On Modi reelection, experts advise Pakistan to temper hope for peace

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) gestures during a meeting at the central hall of the parliament in New Delhi on May 25, 2019. Modi was formally elected as leader of the Bhartiya Janta Party-led National Democratic Alliance during the meeting. (AFP)

• Most analysts say little reason for PM Khan to believe Modi resuming office would create an opening for dialogue between the arch-enemies
• Khan and Modi may surprise many by establishing greater stability in the region, some experts hope

ISLAMABAD: Security experts in Pakistan have said Prime Minister Imran Khan’s optimism that the reelection of Narendra Modi as India’s prime minister may create an opening for peace between the archrivals is ‘misplaced,’ and advised the government to temper its high hopes.
The Pakistani and Indian prime ministers exchanged messages via Twitter on Thursday hoping for peace, after Modi returned to power in New Delhi in an election fought in the wake of confrontation between the nuclear-armed enemies.
Khan said he was ready to cooperate with the government as it resumed office: “I congratulate Prime Minister Modi on the electoral victory of BJP and allies,” he said in a Twitter post. “Look forward to working with him for peace, progress and prosperity in South Asia.”
Modi replied by thanking Khan, saying he had “always given primacy to peace and development in our region.”
“It’s out of the question that Modi will accommodate Pakistan,” political analyst Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi told Arab News. “Khan’s optimism is misplaced.”
He added that Modi would reinforce the Hindu nationalism that had brought him to power for the second time and would be “more authoritarian rather than democratic.”
“He will play tough with Pakistan on core issues such as water, Kashmir and terrorism,” Rizvi said.
In a possible warning to India and as it became clear that Modi’s ultra-right, Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on course to win the vast, multi-stage Indian general election, Pakistan announced on Thursday that it had conducted the training launch of a Shaheen II surface-to-surface ballistic missile, which it said was capable of delivering conventional and nuclear weapons at a range of up to 1,500 miles.
“The leader of a responsible weapons’ state has to express optimism, but it should be cautious optimism,” Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, an international relations expert, said about Khan’s twitter message expressing hope for peace.
The exchange between Khan and Modi follows months of tension between the two countries, which came close to war in February over the disputed region of Kashmir, which both sides claim in full but rule in part since independence from Britain in 1947.
Following a suicide attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that killed 40 members of an Indian paramilitary police force in February, Indian jets launched a raid inside Pakistan, striking what New Delhi said was a training camp of Jaish-e Mohammed, the radical group that claimed the Kashmir attack.
Pakistan says no militant training camps were hit, and in response conducted a retaliatory strike of its own. Jets from the two countries fought a dogfight in the skies over Kashmir during which an Indian pilot was shot down and captured.
Amid international pressure to end the conflict, Pakistan returned the pilot and there were no further strikes but tensions remained high, with regular exchanges of artillery fire from both sides in Kashmir.
Pakistan has also kept part of its airspace closed to international air traffic, disrupting flights to India and other parts of the region.
But some analysts are still hopeful that better sense will prevail.
“Modi and Khan might end up surprising many by establishing greater stability in the region,” columnist Mosharraf Zaidi told Arab News. “People like to deal with the representative of a party that has real power and strength.”
“It is easier for Pakistan to deal with an Indian PM who enjoys popularity and great political legitimacy, than a weak premier representing a coalition government and struggling for popularity,” Zaidi said.
On Wednesday, Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi spoke briefly with his Indian counterpart, Sushma Swaraj, on the sidelines of a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek.
“We never speak bitterly,” he said following the encounter, in which Swaraj presented him with a gift of sweets. “We want to live like good neighbors and settle our outstanding issues through talks.”