KARACHI: The final tranche of the $3 billion bailout package promised by Riyadh to help Islamabad address its balance of payments crisis arrived on Friday, halting further devaluation of the Pakistani rupee and allaying the general mood in the capital market, analysts say.
Pakistan, which was dealing with a $12 billion external financing gap, had secured $6 billion in financial assistance from Saudi Arabia, with $3 billion in foreign currency support and $3 billion worth of oil on deferred payments. The agreement was signed during the visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan to the Kingdom in October last year.
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves declined to $13.3 billion on January 18 this year which included $6.6 billion held by the central bank and $6.6 billion by the commercial banks.
It received $1 billion from UAE’s Abu Dhabi Fund for Development on Thursday which pushed the reserve position up to around $14.3 billion.
With the transfer of the third tranche from Riyadh on Friday, the reserves have increased to around $15.3 billion.
According to some experts, Pakistan’s improving external account position shrinks the possibility of the central bank further hiking up interest rates and devaluing the currency, which has experienced six rounds of devaluations since December 2017.
“Pakistan was on the verge of defaulting, and there was a general perception that the country would not get financial support from anywhere. But the government’s efforts turned things around,” said Malik Bostan, President Forex Association of Pakistan.
Following the bailout package from Riyadh, the Pakistan stock exchange PSX rallied back to 40,265 from lows of around 38,000 points. The KSE-100 index closed in the green for the fourth consecutive week, cumulatively rising 8 percent and gaining 958 points, according to Topline Securities, a brokerage, in its market review.
It added that the index gained this week due to the third instalment from Saudi Arabia of the agreed $3 billion, and an incentive filled economic reform package announced during the week, with benefits for several sectors such as textiles and automobiles.
“The most important impact of the Saudi bailout was that other countries, like the UAE and China also followed by extending their help. Otherwise, Pakistan would have to rush to the IMF,” said Samiullah Tariq, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, a major securities brokerage company.
At a post-budget news conference last week, Finance Minister Asad Umar was firm in stating that Islamabad would not take any dictation for economic support or “go down on its knees,” for an IMF bailout package. And even though some experts remain of the view that an IMF package is necessary to keep multilateral financing on track, the marked change in Pakistan’s negotiating stance follows the $4 billion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE following PM Khan’s visits to the countries after he assumed office in August last year as well as a promised Chinese assistance package which is yet to materialise.
“In the absence of Saudi’s financial assistance, the Pakistani rupee would have been further devalued, increased inflation would have resulted in further increased interest rates, growth would have been further decelerated and cost of capital would have been further increased,” Khurram Schehzad, a senior financial analyst and CEO of Alpha Beta Core — a financial advisory firm — said.
Saudi’s economic cooperation with Pakistan is not limited to the $6 billion bailout package, with Riyadh expected to make a substantial amount of investments — ranging from between $15 billion and $20 billion — during the next three to five years in Pakistan, according to Pakistan’s Board of Investment.
The investment is expected to be formalized during the upcoming visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman next month.
But financial experts are calling for sustainable steps to deal with Pakistan’s economy and shrink its decades-long dependence on consistent foreign assistance, including dozens of loans and at least 12 bailout packages from the IMF.
“Some relief to the Pakistani rupee has come from funding from KSA,” said Muhammad Sohail, CEO at Topline Securities. “However, permanent solutions are needed to stabilize the currency, including higher exports and curtailed imports.”
