Experts foresee split in Pakistani Taliban over leadership succession

A video grab taken from an undated video released by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) shows its slain chief Mullah Fazlullah (C) at an known location at Pak-Afghan border. Fazlullah was killed by a US drone on 13 June 2018 in Kunar province, Afghanistan. (EPA)

• The emergence of the TTP was the result of one charismatic personality, Baitullah Mehsud, followed by Hakimullah Mehsud
• Unlikely the Afghan Taliban, which remains united, the TTP will split into a couple more factions

KARACHI: Experts say they foresee a splintering of the Pakistani Taliban due to a likely conflict over leadership succession.
Mullah Fazalullah, head of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), was killed by a US drone strike on Wednesday.
According to some media reports, the TTP has named Umar Rehman — alias Ustad Fateh, a resident of the Swat Valley in Pakistan — as the new chief. But Taliban insiders deny this.
“All that has happened after the death of Fazalullah was to lay him to rest,” a TTP source told Arab News.
Asfandyar Mir, a security expert who has studied the insurgency and drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, said the succession is “a tenuous issue” for the TTP.
Its most powerful faction, Mehsud Halqa, was “not happy” with Fazalullah’s ascension as leader, Mir added.
The faction “remained distant” from him, “often disagreeing with him openly, at other times never fully supporting his operational strategy,” Mir said.
Mehsud Halqa’s leader, Maulvi Noor Wali, “is an experienced and well-respected commander,” and “is better positioned in terms of organizational skill and social capital to revive the TTP,” Mir added. The TTP could fracture if it appoints a Swat commander as its next leader, he said.
Khalid Mohammed, director of Command Eleven, an Islamabad-based security think tank, said: “The TTP Mehsuds, who started the terror group, will never accept a non-Mehsud as their leader, especially someone associated with… Fazalullah.”
Mohammed, who hails from the Swat Valley, added that Umar Rehman is unknown in his community.
Wali, 40, is seen as a contender. He was made deputy after the killing of Khalid Sajna in a drone strike, and was the TTP’s Karachi chief from June 2013 until May 2015.
He is author of the book “Inquilab-e-Mehsud,” in which he claimed to have assassinated former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
“The emergence of the TTP was the result of one charismatic personality, Baitullah Mehsud, followed by Hakimullah Mehsud. Once these two people were gone, the TTP was exposed to all sorts of internal rifts,” said security expert Imtiaz Gul, adding that the leadership succession will take some time.
If a non-Mehsud becomes leader, “this will mean the further splintering of the organization,” he said.
“Unlikely the Afghan Taliban, which remains united, the TTP will split into a couple more factions.”
Mir said: “Fazalullah’s death will add to the TTP’s woes. It has been in turmoil for many years. The organization has been blunted by years of drone strikes and Pakistani military operations.”