It is no secret that much of the Republican foreign policy establishment was alarmed by President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on transatlantic security and Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign.
At one point on the campaign trail, Trump questioned continued US involvement in NATO, and even called it obsolete. He also received constant criticism for his perceived admiration for Vladimir Putin. He dismissed criticism of Putin for locking up journalists and suggested the Russian president was a better leader than Barack Obama. Trump repeatedly said he could work with Putin and that he was “someone who can be dealt with.”
But Trump is not the first US president to believe that Putin is someone the US can credibly work with. In fact, it took his two predecessors at least one whole term in office to realize that Putin is not a credible partner for the US.
Do not forget what George W. Bush said in 2001 after meeting Putin for the first time: “I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul.” As an ex-KGB officer, it is likely that Putin looked Bush in the eye and saw a case number.
By the end of Bush’s second term in office, US-Russia relations were on ice; Moscow had launched a cyber-attack on Estonia, suspended natural gas supplies to Ukraine and invaded Georgia.
Obama was arguably even more naive. While trying to show the world he was the antithesis to Bush, he strove to accommodate Putin and create better relations with Moscow. This manifested itself in March 2009, when his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov symbolically, if a little awkwardly, pressed a red “reset” button — to demonstrate a fresh start to US-Russian relations.
After Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Idlib in April 2017, and the subsequent Russian cover-up, Trump learnt early in his first term that Putin could not be trusted. The speed at which he came to this realization sets him apart from his two predecessors.
Luke Coffey
Since then, this “reset” has turned into regret.
By Obama’s second term, the breakdown in US-Russian relations began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea. Tensions reached their peak with Moscow’s meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
After Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Idlib in April 2017, and the subsequent Russian cover-up, Trump learnt early in his first term that Putin could not be trusted. The speed at which he came to this realization sets him apart from his two predecessors.
Paradoxically, a president who has been continuously criticized for coddling Putin has now taken a stronger stance on Russia than any president since Ronald Reagan. Just a cursory glance at his first year in office demonstrates this.
Early on, Trump traveled to Poland, a frontline state and former Warsaw Pact country, and delivered a powerful speech committing the US to NATO’s security guarantee. Around the same time, Vice President Mike Pence traveled to Estonia, Montenegro and Georgia — three countries that have all suffered Russian interference or aggression — and delivered strong messages of US support.
Trump has overseen the enlargement of NATO with Montenegro’s membership, which 18 months ago would have been unthinkable. Even after criticizing Europeans for not spending enough on defense while the US was spending too much, Trump increased US spending on European defense in his first year by 40 percent compared with Obama’s last year in office.
He agreed to sell lethal weapons, including the advanced Javelin anti-tank missile, to Ukraine and Georgia. In the case of Georgia, he did in only eight months what Obama refused to do in eight years. During Trump’s first year in office, the US also stepped up its air presence in the Baltic region.
In terms of economic sanctions against Russia, Trump has been equally tough. He has approved new sanctions against dozens of Russian oligarchs, senior government officials and organizations over connections to election meddling and cyber-attacks.
He closed two Russian consulates in Seattle and San Francisco, and expelled 60 Russian diplomats thought to be spies. This was almost double the number Obama expelled for election meddling in 2016 and more than Ronald Reagan’s expulsion of 55 Russian diplomats in 1986.
None of these are the actions of an administration that is “weak on Russia.” But, even with this clear track record of taking a tough line on Russia, Trump still has his critics claiming he is soft on Putin.
Of course, the US should aspire for good relations with Russia. When Trump says he hopes he can have a good relationship with Putin, he is right. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Kremlin and the White House communicated. Whether it is in the Arctic, fighting terrorism, or stopping nuclear proliferation, there are so many areas where the US and Russia should be working together.
Sadly, the reality is different. Nothing since Putin came to power in 1999 shows that he can be a trustworthy partner for the US. Thankfully, it has not taken long for Trump to learn this.
- Luke Coffey is Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey