Cautious welcome for Franco-Turkish cooperation on Syria

A Syrian man mourns over his home destroyed by airstrikes in the Eastern Ghouta region on the outskirts of Damascus on Sunday. (AFP)

ANKARA: Within a matter of days Turkey and France went from being at each other’s throats over Syria to claiming to have a road map to end the seven-year conflict.
Ankara was furious last week when France criticized the Turkish operation in northern Syria against Kurdish militias.
On Sunday, that seemed to have been forgotten when Emmanuel Macron announced that he and Recep Tayyip Erdogan were working on a “diplomatic road map” for Syria in the coming weeks.
After such a rocky few days the announcement surprised many, but experts told Arab News that cooperation between France and Turkey on a peace plan for Syria could be a win-win situation for both sides.
Ankara and Paris seem to be on the same page when it comes to counter-terror cooperation, particularly against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) and Daesh.
France is also considered a good choice of Western country due to its historical ties with Syria as a colonial power.
Erdogan and Macron spoke by phone on Saturday about developments in Syria, including security, humanitarian and political issues as well as Turkey’s offensive in Afrin.
The French president said the two countries want to reach a political settlement under the aegis of the UN, and that talks between Paris and Ankara will increase in the coming days.
There were signs on Jan. 5 that the two powers could start pulling in the same direction on Syria when Erdogan and Macron met in Paris.
Macron, who has overseen a string of diplomatic successes since he became president last year, affirmed his willingness to work with Turkey to find a peaceful transition in Syria.
“Turkey’s vision for political settlement in Syria overlaps partly with the Western powers,” Oytun Orhan, an expert on Syria at ORSAM, a think tank in Ankara, told Arab News.
Like Germany, France and Britain, Turkey believes peace process in Syria requires free, fair and transparent elections, drafting a constitution and putting a military solution to one side, he said.
“Concerning the territorial integrity of Syria and its political unity, the role of the Syrian Kurdish militia and the presence of the US, Turkey thinks mostly the same as Russia and Iran.
“But, contrary to Ankara, Tehran wants to resolve the Syrian conflict through military means, without giving much concession to the Syrian opposition,” Orhan added.
Turkey will have to balance the France initiative with the Astana de-escalation deal brokered last year by Russia, Turkey and Iran.
France has made political transition in Syria a priority and has kept direct and indirect contacts with the Assad regime.
For Macron, Assad’s departure is no longer an essential part of a peace deal, as Paris is now specifically focused on preventing the total collapse of the Syrian state.
“In the reconstruction process of Syria, the country will need significant financial support, and regional actors will not afford it completely. At this stage, the role of the West will be predominant,” Orhan said.
Emel Parlar Dal, a Middle East expert from Marmara University in Istanbul, said the Turkish-French road map may be the result of French concerns about Russia’s influence in Syria. It could also be an attempt to exploit tensions between Ankara and Washington for its own benefit in the region.
Tensions between the US and Turkey are at a high because the Kurdish militants that Ankara is fighting in Afrin are supported by America. Turkey accuses them of being terrorists associated with the PKK, which has fought an insurgency inside Turkey for decades. The US says the militants are an important bulwark against Daesh.
“France is well aware of the strategic background of Turkey’s ongoing Afrin offensive, and of Ankara’s expectation from its allies, especially Washington, to withdraw their support to YPG,” Parlar Dal said.
A diplomatic initiative with France will help improve Turkey’s image internationally, she said.
“Political settlement has always been Ankara’s first and foremost preference in Syria. So, realizing this goal under the UN framework and with the Western allies is more preferable.”