After string of defeats, Daesh faces retreat to the desert

Iraqi security forces and members of the Saraya al-Salam (Peace Brigades), a group formed by Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, inspect the site of suicide bombings at a power plant north of the capital Baghdad, in this September 2, 2017 photo. (AFP)

BAGHDAD: Facing a string of defeats in Syria and Iraq, Daesh is being forced to retreat to the desert from which it emerged three years ago.
By the end of 2014, the group born in Iraq held one third of the oil-rich country and large swathes of territory in neighboring Syria.
But today it has lost 90 percent of its territory in Iraq, including the city of Mosul, while in Syria a US-backed alliance of Kurdish and Arab fighters has captured over 60 percent of its one-time bastion of Raqqa. Syrian government troops meanwhile are eating away at the last province under militant control, Deir Ezzor.
At one time, the group held around half of Syria, much of it uninhabited desert, but today it controls just 15 percent, according to Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche.
Kurdish forces hold around 23 percent, according to Balanche.
In Iraq and Syria, Daesh’s governance project (is) compromised, but I don’t see Daesh completely defeated, said Ludovico Carlino, a senior analyst at IHS Markit Country Risk.
“From a narrative/propaganda perspective, losing Raqqa will have surely big implications,” particularly after the fall of Mosul, he said.
But he said the Euphrates River Valley, an area of desert stretching from Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria to Al-Qaim in western Iraq “from a strategic perspective... is much more important.”
Commanders in the US-led coalition against Daesh estimate between 5,000 and 10,000 militant fighters and commanders have already fled Raqqa to the area.
Daesh faces attack from several fronts and forces in the area, including the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Syria’s army backed by Russia, and Iraq’s army.
The militants have begun to dig tunnels, plant explosive devices and prepare vehicle bombs, according to the US-led coalition. “The loss of Raqqa is already happening. It is the complete recapture of Deir Ezzor by the Syrian army that will be the real turning point,” said Balanche.
Inside Daesh-held parts of the province, that possibility has created new restrictions and tension, according to activists.
“They’ve built military barriers in each neighborhood and alleyway.They’ve mined the administrative borders to the cities,” said Omar Abu Leila, an activist from Deir Ezzor 24, which publishes news on the city.
As the prospect of Daesh being driven completely from Syria and Iraq nears, attention is turning to what might follow, and in particular the question of relations between minority and majority groups in the two countries.
The SDF has brought together Kurdish and Arab fighters, but it remains to be seen whether the alliance will withstand Kurdish dreams of federalism.
And it is unclear whether Syrian regime will allow other forces to control parts of the country it has spent six years trying to clear of rebels and militants.
In Deir Ezzor, civilians in Daesh-held territory face shortages of food, water and electricity, and are increasingly afraid as the battle approaches, said Abu Leila.
They also fear revenge attacks by government forces or allies, he said.
Daesh mined ethnic and sectarian divisions in both Syria and Iraq to recruit members to its cause, and experts warned the group would profit in the absence of real efforts at reconciliation. And the group will not disappear entirely, said Balanche. Daesh “will return to the underground. It will carry out terrorist attacks,” he said.