Russia, Turkey, Iran eye dicing Syria into zones of influence

MOSCOW/ANKARA: Syria would be divided into informal zones of regional power influence and Bashar Assad would remain president for at least a few years under an outline deal between Russia, Turkey and Iran, sources say.

Such a deal, which would allow regional autonomy within a federal structure controlled by Assad’s Alawite sect, is in its infancy, subject to change and would need the buy-in of Assad and the opposition fighters and, eventually, the Gulf states and the United States, sources familiar with Russia’s thinking say. “There has been a move toward a compromise,” said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think-tank close to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“A final deal will be hard, but stances have shifted.”
Assad’s powers would be cut under a deal between the three nations, say several sources. Russia and Turkey would allow him to stay until the next presidential election when he would quit in favor of a less polarizing Alawite candidate.
Iran has yet to be persuaded of that, say the sources. But either way, Assad would eventually go, in a face-saving way, with guarantees for him and his family. “A couple of names in the leadership have been mentioned (as potential successors),” said Kortunov, declining to name names.
Nobody thinks a wider Syrian peace deal, something that has eluded the international community for years, will be easy, quick or certain of success. What is clear is that President Vladimir Putin wants to play the lead role in trying to broker a settlement, initially with Turkey and Iran.
That would bolster his narrative of Russia regaining its mantle as a world power and serious Middle East player.
“It’s a very big prize for them if they can show they’re out there in front changing the world,” Sir Tony Brenton, Britain’s former ambassador to Moscow, told Reuters. “We’ve all grown used to the United States doing that and had rather forgotten that Russia used to play at the same level.”
If Russia gets its way, new peace talks between the Syrian regime and the opposition will begin in mid-January in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, a close Russian ally.
The talks would be distinct from intermittent UN-brokered negotiations and not initially involve the United States.
That has irritated some in Washington.
“So this country that essentially has an economy the size of Spain, that’s Russia, is strutting around and acting like they know what they are doing,” said one US official, who declined to be named because of the subject’s sensitivity.
“I don’t think the Turks and the Russians can do this (political negotiations) without us.”
Moscow got Iran to buy into the idea of a three-way peace push by getting Turkey to drop its demands for Assad to go soon, the same sources said.
“Our priority is not to see Assad go, but for terrorism to be defeated,” one senior Turkish government official, who declined to be named, said.
“It doesn’t mean we approve of Assad. But we have come to an understanding. When Daesh is wiped out, Russia may support Turkey in Syria finishing off the PKK.”
“Of course we have disagreements with Iran,” said the same Turkish official. “We view some issues differently, but we are coming to agreements to end mutual problems.”
Aydin Sezer, head of the Turkey and Russia Center of Studies, an Ankara-based think tank, said Turkey had now “completely given up the issue of regime change” in Syria.
Turkey’s public position remains strongly anti-Assad however and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday a political transition with Assad was impossible.
Brenton, Britain’s former ambassador, said Moscow and Ankara had done a deal because Moscow had needed Turkey to get the opposition out of Aleppo and to come to the negotiating table.
“The real flesh in the game the Turks have, and the fear they have, is of an autonomous Kurdistan emerging inside Syria that would have direct implications for them,” he said.
The shifting positions of Moscow and Ankara are driven by realpolitik. Russia doesn’t want to get bogged down in a long war and wants to hold Syria together and keep it as an ally.
Turkey wants to informally control a swathe of northern Syria giving it a safe zone to house refugees, a base for the anti-Assad opposition, and a bulwark against Kurdish influence.
Iran’s interests are harder to discern, but Ali Akbar Velayati, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s top adviser, said Aleppo’s fall might alter a lot in the region.