Abyei: An ongoing dilemma

Hardly a week after the meeting between the presidents of Sudan and South Sudan, the media is abuzz with reports about a possible outbreak of violence between the two countries over the disputed Abyei region.
Though the issue has been around for more than four decades even when Sudan was one country — then the issue was as to whether Abyei belong administratively to the north or the south — but it became one of key issues during the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to the extent that a special protocol was devoted to Abyei.
However, during the six-year CPA interim period and on the way to the referendum that granted South Sudan independence, certain elements from Abyei occupying influential positions in the executive and military in Juba were of the view that before any talks between the two sides, Abyei issue be resolved. In last September, Omar Bashir and Salva Kiir concluded nine agreements that covered all aspects of relations between the two countries except the issue of Abyei, which was left to the two presidents to deal with later. It was noticeable that Deng Alor, then cabinet affairs minister in Juba and a leading figure from Abyei declined to attend the ceremony of signing the agreements in what was seen as a protest.Though the African Union (AU), which has been mediating between the two countries, has proposed that a referendum takes place this month, but Sudan never accepted that proposal. Last week’s summit between Bashir and Kiir ignited the issue as Abyei became the last item mentioned in the final communiqué, which in effect adopted Sudan’s position that is to establish the administrative structure for the region, pay the agreed upon two percent income from oil produced from Abyei and leave it to the two presidents to make the final settlement of the issue. That position received endorsement from both the AU and the UN, who warned from taking any unilateral move that, may threaten the fragile improvement between Khartoum and Juba.
To counter this trend the leaders of Ngok Dinka of Abyei thought to take the initiative and carry out what they call “people’s referendum,” which means in effect a unilateral vote. The government of South Sudan has reportedly distanced itself from it. Juba also blocked airing of pro-referendum programs on the state radio and television, a move seen as a signal that it sticks to its deal with Khartoum.
Abyei is described sometime wrongly as rich in oil. In fact during its peak it was producing some 11, 000 barrels per day (bpd) that has currently dropped to less than 3, 000 bpd. More importantly it is rich in water and pastures that serve as a lifeline for Sudan’s Missirya tribe’s cattle during the summers. Despite rising tensions and the possibility of an outbreak of communal violence between the Missiriya and Ngok Dinka, there are encouraging signs. So far Juba has distanced itself from this referendum and its outcome and Khartoum has exercised restraint and even the Missiriya tribe has not make any move so far.
The leaderships of the two countries have realized that both are bound to lose from violence and mutual cooperation is the only way out for both sides.

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