Chinese checkers: Making the right move
A RECENT Chinese move to prepare a draft law for exploration of international seabed including Indian Ocean has left the Indian strategic establishment frowning despite the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) desire to develop a “new type” of military relationship with their Indian counterparts for stabilizing South Asia.
PLA’s Deputy Chief Lt. Gen. Qi Jianguo expressed his organization’s eagerness to foster such cooperative partnership in no uncertain terms to the visiting Indian defense secretary during the annual defense dialogue that concluded last week in Beijing.
This being the 50th anniversary of a bitter Sino-Indian armed conflict that virtually altered the geopolitical balance in South Asian region, the National People’s Congress’ initiative to enact the Communist country’s maiden statute on deep sea resource management will surely stoke concern in New Delhi over its real intent notwithstanding the placatory overtures emanating from China’s top military brass.
In spite of boasting a robust cultural and religious tie from time immemorial, many believe that the concurrent rise of both these neighbors in a common strategic space will inevitably trigger perpetual animosity.
Furthermore, the deep rooted sense of humiliation resulting out of the drubbing that the Indian military received in the autumn of 1962 continues to haunt Indian psyche, which makes it all the more difficult for a nation to undertake an objective analysis of the evolving ground realities. Half a century down the line, the foreign office mandarins in New Delhi are still struggling to strike a balance between the often bloated security concerns and the necessity to extricate the bilateral relations out of quibbling over maps and treaties signed in the distant past.
While it is being widely projected that a downward spiral in mutual relationship is intractable in the short term, one cannot gloss over the fact that the Communist leadership is already making the right noises for co-opting India into its fold to hedge against American assertiveness in their courtyard.
Distinguished fellows of the Chinese foreign policy advisory committee have started advocating an enduring shift in Beijing’s outlook toward the subcontinent by rebalancing the age-old pro-Pakistan tilt. For all practical purposes, it would be in India’s interest to recalibrate her strategic posturing for meeting Beijing halfway without compromising the outreach policy to augment diplomatic alliances in Southeast Asia and beyond. Though it is a fact incontrovertible that the two Asian giants are riddled with fair share of differences, assigning primacy to the common denominators will help overcome the blockages in establishing a salubrious partnership so essential for restoring the much talked about Asian glory.
At the same time the political leadership in India must be ready to engage Beijing on contentious issues and even bite the bullet by accepting a compromise formula that borders on legitimizing the Chinese stand on McMahon Line with certain riders. However, it needs to be an incremental approach keeping in mind that counter claim over sparsely inhabited pockets in frontier zone was never the principal underlying cause of tension between India and China.
The Chinese leadership is already displaying flexibility by according recognition to India’s legitimate sphere of influence and going to the extent of seeking New Delhi’s involvement in maintaining stability in Asia Pacific. Indian policy makers would be well advised to utilize this opening for impressing upon Beijing the urgent necessity of resolving the Tibetan crisis which bedevils bilateral relationship to this day. Since the Dalai Lama can be persuaded to settle for Chinese sovereignty over greater Tibet as long as its full cultural autonomy and religious freedom are conceded, there is no reason why Beijing would want to loose this window of opportunity in resolving a prickly issue that can have far reaching ramifications on its territorial integrity in the foreseeable future.
The People’s Republic is in the midst of a churning — socially, politically and economically. Financial meltdown in Europe and America has hit the Chinese export driven economy hard. Domestic labor dispute is compelling the state to abandon its low wage structure resulting in loss of competitive teeth in international market.
This will in turn make the Chinese manufacturers look south, beyond the Himalayas. A desperate need to break into the Indian market overtly can be the instrumental factor behind Beijing’s reconcilement toward a consolidated South Asia. On the domestic front, successive self immolation bids by Tibetans coupled with creation of enlightened and questioning citizenry despite stringent social media censorship has obliged the authorities to reorient economic priorities in a manner commensurate with an equitable and liberal society. The all-powerful Peoples Liberation Army too is affected by the political ripples emanating from exposures of corruption at influential levels.
Circumstances will push the President in waiting Xi Jinping into leading an administration that is no longer intransigent. In between, the clamor for adopting a hawkish stand on the South China Sea and island disputes is a transitional stance aimed at arousing nationalistic fervor before the change of guard is effected March next. The stage is therefore all set for the emergence of a reformed China vowing to rigorously defend the dissident voices at all cost.
Given Beijing’s propensity to suppress progressive voices, hopefully it is not too premature to even conceive of such an outcome.
— Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.
