The uprising in Tunisia, which started when a despairing young fruit and vegetable seller, Mohammed Bouazizi, set fire to himself in December because of police harassment, certainly gave rise to those in Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria. It showed that the mighty could be brought low if they were oppressive, corrupt and did nothing to ensure the public prosperity and well-being. Inspired and no longer afraid, the Egyptians, Libyans, Yemenis and Syrians took to the streets to win the same freedom as the Tunisians.
Nonetheless, while the uprisings in all five states have been followed with passionate support across the Arab world, it is wildly premature to claim what has happened in Tunisia and Libya will fundamentally and forever change the rest of the Arab world.
That Tunisia and Libya will be democracies like India or Indonesia, Italy or Ireland, is a fair certainty. The determination of the mass of ordinary Tunisians to practice and hold on to democracy on Sunday was impressive. They understand that it is not just about elections but far more — a respect for the law, for the freedom of expression, for minorities. In Libya too, there is a determination to be democratic — a determination forged by the experience of 42 years of tyranny and eight months of massacre and barbarity. But will the two be the exception for some time to come rather than the rule?
No one can predict at present the outcome of the uprisings in Yemen and Syria. As for Egypt, it is very much unfinished business, with the army, the real power in the land since 1952, desperate to hold on to it.
And what about the rest of the Arab world? People ask “where next?” of the Arab Spring, suggesting places such as Algeria or Sudan. They point to continuing tensions in Morocco where on Sunday the same day as freedom came to Tunisia and Libya, thousands took to the streets calling for a boycott of parliamentary elections next month.
But Algeria is calm. Nothing has happened in Sudan. And all the indications are that, despite the demonstrations, the reform program unveiled by King Mohammed VI in Morocco commands major support.
The fact is that Libya is not Algeria, Egypt not Sudan, Tunisia not Morocco. Yemen is not Oman. Syria is not even Lebanon. There are cultural common denominators but each and every Arab state is politically and economically different — and it is the internal politics and economies of each state that are the motors for stability or change.
One day there may be streets across the Arab world named after Bouazizi but not yet.