Starmer’s China reset will come at a price

This is the age of strategic reckoning on all fronts and for all nations. It is surely the Donald Trump effect, but it is also the result of the grinding breakdown of the old world order and the rise of new powers and new technologies and what comes with them in terms of emerging threats, emerging opportunities and adversities.

It is from this prism that the UK is trying to hedge its bets on many fronts: from the changing but still special relationship with an unreliable US to the renewed overture to its European neighbors in an attempt to stop Russia’s encroachment in Ukraine and America’s in Greenland. Last but not least, there is also a tilt east to try to repair London’s vital relationship with China, which is clearly ready to court “middle powers” — but only on its terms.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could not have chosen a better time to head to China, becoming the first British leader to visit the country in eight years. He is seeking to rebuild ties and harmonize the bumpy relationship with Beijing at a time of plummeting relations with the US.

But mending ties with the world’s second-largest economy is no easy task. And it will be made much more difficult by the current imperial-like US administration, which is bent on goading and issuing orders to its allies and friends ahead of its enemies.

Starmer is the latest Western leader to visit China, after Emmanuel Macron of France and Mark Carney of Canada. Accompanied by senior ministers and business executives, he is on a charm offensive to try to realign UK business interests and cooperation with Beijing, while clamping down on gangs and cybercrime. Other areas of interest include artificial intelligence and technology cooperation, trade and finance, and the environment. Starmer will have to set aside Britain’s old rows with China over Hong Kong and its crackdown on pro-democracy protests, along with multiple allegations of espionage and cyberattacks.

Starmer is seeking to harmonize the bumpy relationship with Beijing at a time of plummeting relations with the US

Mohamed Chebaro

In the 12 months to mid-2025, China was Britain’s fourth-largest trading partner, with trade totaling £103 billion ($141 billion), according to government data. But China only accounts for 0.2 percent of foreign direct investment into Britain, while the US accounts for about a third, and the UK’s market share for both goods and services with China is falling. This has pushed some experts to question what this trip is for and if any tangible benefits will really impact the growth of the UK economy, once the dust of diplomatic briefings and spin settles.

In short, the answer is no, or at least not much, especially if we compare Starmer’s trip with the other recent visits by Western leaders. Canada struck a deal that will slash tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and Canadian canola oil, but Macron’s December visit yielded relatively few economic benefits. And in all cases, Washington stands ready to retaliate punitively if it deems such rapprochement is not aligned with its interests. This is already the case with Canada, as Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods and products coming into the US if Carney follows through with a China trade deal.

China would not mind greater access to the UK market, especially a planned wind turbine plant in Scotland, despite warnings from the Trump administration that this could present a security risk. Inviting China to partner in the most sensitive parts of the UK economy might not be smooth, as it is not long since China was invited into the development of the 5G network and nuclear power stations during the “golden age” of their bilateral relationship when David Cameron was prime minister. The UK, under pressure from the US, ultimately had second thoughts.

China is banking on a natural tilt east by all major European powers as they try to fend off the intrusiveness of their main US ally

Mohamed Chebaro

The debate preceding the UK’s granting of planning permission for China to build a so-called mega-embassy in the heart of London is indicative of the persistent hot-and-cold bilateral relationship. This is also reflected in the British public’s skepticism regarding the balance of the relationship, as 40 percent think that it benefits Beijing more than the UK, according to a recent YouGov poll.

China is trying to convey that it is a reliable partner. It seems to advocate a multipolar world and is banking on a natural tilt east by all major European powers as they try to fend off the intrusiveness of their main US ally.

But how far is China ready to go, knowing that it rarely dishes out benefits to others without getting something in return? A refreshed partnership that encourages UK-China economic and financial dialogue and more cooperation would surely be beneficial. But it will not be the silver bullet the UK economy needs. And renewed trust in working together to tackle the gangs involved in illegally trafficking migrants to Britain will also not be enough to boost Starmer significantly.

The worry is that the prime minister’s visit, even if it is successful, will cause further volatility in the UK-US relationship, which is currently strained on many files. The containment approach so far used successfully by Starmer to keep Trump onside seems to be faltering. But the PM was confident as he left for China that he could pursue trade deals with Beijing without upsetting the US president. That is a tall order in my view, since any success is likely to be interpreted as contrary to US interests by a president who is working single-handedly to rejig the world order.

The UK’s tilt east could be ripe with opportunities but also riddled with challenges that could define Starmer’s premiership and the long-term standing of his country.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.