Europe at a crossroads with its very future in peril
People are pictured inside the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium April 30, 2019. (Reuters)
For a clear sign of how apathetic, some may say disillusioned, Europeans are with the running of the European Union and its institutions, we need look no further than the meager turnout in previous elections for the European Parliament. Last time around, five years ago, a mere 43 percent bothered to show up at the polling station. More than 60 years after the first “European Parliamentary Assembly” was appointed and 40 years since the Parliament was elected for the first time, the vast majority of the electorate still have no interest in it and don’t believe that their vote matters. It would be hard to find many who could actually name their MEP.
It makes one wonder whether European citizens are conscious of how powerful this legislature is, and how influential it is on their day-to-day life. As polarization and discord are taking over as a result of rising nationalism and populism across many of the member states, can anyone guarantee that May’s elections will not be the last?
They feature a bizarre additional twist, which could not have been expected only a few months ago – the participation of the UK, which can only be regarded as symptomatic of Europe’s shaky state of affairs. To add to the farce called Brexit, which has already been postponed twice and is now set for the end of October, the UK is hastily arranging elections for the European Parliament, for MEPs who might serve only for a few months. And to add absurdity to farce, there is no certainty that these UK elections will take place at all. There remains a remote possibility that Prime Minister Theresa May will have a Brexit withdrawal agreement approved by the UK Parliament by May 22, the day before the European elections are due to take place, and making them pointless in any case. Meanwhile there is an increasingly big “if” hanging over Brexit.
Discord between those who have an internationalist view of Europe, and those trying to drag it back to its past as a continent divided along national and nationalist lines, is real and runs deep.
Yossi Mekelberg
One of the consequences for the EU of not reaching the long-negotiated Brexit agreement has been that the bloc has had to postpone reducing the overall number of seats in its parliament, as it planned to do once it was left with only 27 members. Though there is still a faint possibility that the UK will not hold European elections, campaigning has begun in earnest by most of its political parties. For the next few weeks the debate over the worst debacle in British politics since the 1940s will be focused on electioneering between not only the traditional parties but also those running as either for or against Brexit. On the anti-Brexit side the breakaway Labour group now rebranded as Change UK, which is also supported by a number of former Conservative MPs and MEPs, is testing its electoral appeal for the first time. On the pro-Brexit side there is the lamentable return of Nigel Farage, Britain’s master opportunist and manipulator of the EU issue, with his newly formed Brexit Party, which is expected to win most seats. With the more traditional parties demonstrating their indecision, not to mention incompetence, in bringing the Brexit saga to an end, voters might opt for those who offer clearer options.
However, while the UK through its own Brexit folly has attracted much attention, the crisis of legitimacy for the European project as a whole is coming under increasing scrutiny. Somewhat counter-intuitively, anti-Europeans are competing in this year’s elections, and according to some estimates may win more than a third of seats, up from 23 per cent in 2014. This ascendancy of anti-European forces could be disruptive to the orderly functioning of the EU legislature, which has significant powers when it comes to legislation, setting budgets, membership and associate membership issues, scrutinizing the executive, and appeals to the European Court of Justice. It may be the case that ultra-nationalist politicians such as Marine Le Pen in France, Viktor Orban in Hungary and Matteo Salvini in Italy are not talking about dismantling the EU altogether, but are campaigning for a “Europe of sovereign nations,” in other words a body that concentrates more on economics, while distancing themselves from the federal project, which envisages a common foreign and security policy and a joint vision on human rights.
Discord between those who have an internationalist view of Europe, and those trying to drag it back to its past as a continent divided along national and nationalist lines, is real and runs deep. There is an opportunity for the progressive forces to present a European vision that conveys a clear message of commonality, of what brings the citizens of this union together, and to emphasise the EU’s crucial role in ensuring peace, security, stability and democratic values not only for them, but for the rest of the world. But it is also important that at the same time they address legitimate concerns of an inflated and at times inefficient Brussels bureaucracy, as well as people’s fears for their identity in the face of freedom of movement, which is a pillar of this union.
When the votes have been cast and counted we may have a clearer picture of the direction Europe is taking; will it be more nationalism and populism, or more integration and a union that works together to face the challenges of the 21st century? For some time now the balance has been tilting toward the former. Nevertheless, those who believe in a united, democratic and liberal Europe should make it clear to the voters on their doorstep that voting for the Exiters may well bring down the curtain on one of the most daring and successful socio-economic-political endeavors history has ever witnessed. And that is likely to ensure a return to the dark days that Europe endured during the last century, those days of division, destruction and despair that for the past 70 years it has tried to put behind it. Let these not be the last European elections!
- Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg
