Midterm results unlikely to affect Trump’s foreign policy agenda

If, as it is said, politics is a blood sport, then it has got even bloodier in the wake of last week’s US congressional midterm elections. It was a half victory, half defeat for both parties. The Republicans bolstered their control of the Senate, but the Democrats recaptured the House of Representatives after eight years in the political wilderness and thus ended the former’s firm grip over Congress. The outcome, for now, is that President Donald Trump's open-ended agenda for America, and the world, has hit a major snag.

The contrast between Trump’s first two years in the White House and the remaining two years of his first term will be stark, to say the least. The Democrats will do their best to derail the president’s legislative program, thus crippling his freedom to implement his domestic agenda. Moreover, it will be up to the Democratic-led House of Representatives to initiate investigations into Trump’s finances and personal life, making it difficult for the president to follow through on most of his objectives. The coming two years will deepen America’s divisions and mobilize voters before the decisive 2020 presidential election.

But the question is how will last week’s election outcome affect Trump’s foreign policy agenda? The Democrats have been critical of Trump’s nationalist, isolationist and confrontational approach to foreign challenges. In fact, even America’s closest allies have been on the defensive, as Trump has lambasted decades-old military alliances, multinational trade deals and America’s role and mission in a largely unipolar world. Trump has diminished the US’ influence in dealing with global challenges such as climate change, the environment, human rights, free trade and others. He has had an infectious effect on far-right movements and extreme nationalist politics in Europe and elsewhere. His “America First” mantra continues to be a polarizing, galvanizing and divisive tool, not only in the US but across the world.

There are two contrasting views on how the midterm elections will affect Trump’s foreign policy program. One believes that he will be so enmeshed in domestic political wrangles over the coming two years that he will hardly have time to follow his broad foreign policy objectives, whether on Iran, North Korea, Russia or the Middle East. One year from now, Trump will be busy preparing for his re-election battle; one that will be crucial for the majority of Americans and indeed the world.

Trump is a counterpuncher and he will not take the Democrats’ challenge to his presidency sitting down. He will fight back and appeal to his core base

Osama Al Sharif

The other view says that a divided Congress will end up crippling Trump domestically and that Democrats will derail his grand designs to build a wall along the border with Mexico, reduce taxes further and tighten immigration laws, among others. But one area where Congress can do little, and that remains debatable, is in the realm of foreign policy, where the president can push freely on issues such as containing Iran, negotiating regional peace between Israel and its neighbors, and attempting to reach a deal with North Korea. In fact, there are those who believe that Trump will seek to build a legacy by forging an ultimate peace agreement in the Middle East before the end of his first term.

Both views are partially right. Trump is a counterpuncher and he will not take the Democrats’ challenge to his presidency sitting down. He will fight back and appeal to his core base. The Democrats will buy time by derailing his legislative agenda and harassing the president through investigations while avoiding a path to impeachment. But the president will still enjoy free rein in handling foreign policy. For the region, there are a number of issues that Trump can still influence. The most immediate one is containing Iran’s regional ambitions. We are yet to see the effect of the latest batch of US sanctions on Iran’s economy and domestic politics. The US continues to be a major player in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf region.

But a final deal between Israel and its neighbors remains Trump’s most controversial regional goal. The region awaits the unveiling of Trump’s peace offer to Israel and the Palestinians; one that the White House team entrusted with putting it together says is now ready and will be made public soon.

But time is not on Trump’s side. He has to, between now and the end of the year, bring his plan forward. In January, a new Congress will convene and Trump may get entangled in domestic challenges. Furthermore, there is a slight possibility that scandal-tainted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may call for early elections to bolster his position. It goes without saying that neither Netanyahu nor Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are in a hurry to deal with Trump’s peace plan. The prospect of an early election in Israel will force Trump to defer announcing his plan.

Trump may be weakened internally in the wake of the midterm elections, but there is little evidence that his foreign policy agenda will be affected.

• Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010