How the US Democrats scored a points win, but no KO
US mid-term elections are a reliable barometer of the American people’s mood. Last weeks were heralded as probably the most important in our lifetime, and it would be difficult to argue with this assessment. The results were not just a referendum on the administration’s performance – this was a given – but they also provided so many firsts in terms of those who have been elected to serve in Congress, and also as state governors. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib are the first Muslim women, and Sharice Davids and Debra Haaland the first Native American women, to be elected to Congress; Davids is also the first openly LGBT congresswoman from Kansas.
Regardless of which side of the US political map one occupies, few would dispute that the election of President Donald Trump ushered in a new era in terms of both style and substance. This has been met with approval in some quarters, and revulsion in others. While the president was quick to claim the mid-term results as a “tremendous success,” the figures suggest otherwise. Democrats made impressive gains, especially in regaining control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2011, and considering how many seats they had to defend in the Senate they did less badly there than might have been expected. Nevertheless, it was not a victory over the Republicans by a knockout, more of a win on points, with a respectable gap between them in terms of seats and popular support.
For two years President Trump has had almost free rein. The Democrats were on the ropes, and lacked leadership. A Republican-controlled Congress meant that even those from the president’s party who disagreed or even loathed him did not dare break ranks, so the administration had a clear path to set an aggressive, divisive, ultra-nationalistic and xenophobic agenda, domestically and internationally. For the next two years, however, the White House will find that the honeymoon is over. Constant battles with the House of Representatives now await.
Moreover, when the Republicans analyze these mid-term results they will find that it is not only the seats they lost that matter, but also the Democrats’ 7 percent lead in the popular vote. They and their leader will take solace that controlling the Senate will enable them to continue and confirm his executive orders and judicial appointments. Nevertheless, those senators who are up for election in 2020, especially those who are not natural allies of Trump, will constantly test the direction in which the political wind is blowing, and might gradually resume one of the most important aspects of their legislatory role in overseeing the administration’s policies and behavior. They will do so, if not for their country, at least for their own political longevity. One of the pillars of American democracy, that of checks and balances, has been wobbling for the past two years, but now has a chance to be restored.
Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib are the first Muslim women, and Sharice Davids and Debra Haaland the first Native American women, to be elected to Congress; Davids is also the first openly LGBT congresswoman from Kansas.
Yossi Mekelberg
But for now, the real battle is moving to the Democrat-run House, possibly led by Nancy Pelosi, who Trump considers to be one of his chief political enemies. The House may well be able to kick-start the Democrats’ long march back to office by blocking the president’s legislative agenda and constantly involving the White House in investigations and subpoenas, not to mention embarrassing Trump by demanding his tax returns. One of those most likely to be mightily relieved by the election results is Robert Mueller, whose team continues to investigate possible collusion between the Russians and Trump’s presidential campaign. Mueller has been harassed for months by Trump and his associates, but with a tail wind from the newly revamped House which will be more inclined to closely examine a report containing incriminating information, we may see the president present his tax returns sooner rather than later. Trump’s firing of his attorney general Jeff Sessions in the immediate aftermath of the mid-terms looks like the first sign of panic in the White House over the Mueller investigation.
By the end of these elections Washington, and with it the entire country, is not less, but more divided; the split in Congress encapsulates this division and will dominate US politics for another two years. It would be wrong for the Democrats to become complacent and believe that this week’s successes will ensure victory in either the presidential elections or in the Senate the next time around. They will be encouraged by the headway they have made in many suburban areas that are affluent, educated, conservative and thus customarily vote Republican. However, unless they can maintain and accelerate the momentum of their mid-term results, this may be only a fleeting episode.
Moreover, much of their success has stemmed from voters objecting to Trump, his policies, his rancor and his constant scandals, rather than supporting the alternative represented by the Democrats. Now they need to find the time and space to find leadership and develop a platform that connects with those who are as a matter of fact their natural supporters; yet so many people’s fear of globalization, especially in terms of jobs and migration, provided space for the scaremongering that brought the current president to power and has dominated the political and social agendas. Ignoring or even dismissing such fears damaged the electability of the Democrats, and much worse paved the way for an extreme nationalist American agenda that builds walls around the country in more than one way.
It is more likely than not that President Trump, who thrives on discord and acrimony, rather than toning down his approach will accelerate it. For the Democrats the success of last Tuesday has given them a great opportunity to build not only a power base with which to disrupt the administration’s problematic agenda, but also to build a genuine, positive and constructive agenda of their own.
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Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg
