Challenges before the Sochi Congress

After seven years of civil conflict, Syria seems to be lurching toward an endgame in its bloody and convoluted carnage. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed, almost all the country’s major towns and institutions have been destroyed, and its ethnic and sectarian fault-lines have been brutally exposed.
In the first four years of combat, opposition forces successfully pushed against the national army and, while divided among themselves, still came to occupy large chunks of territory. The situation swung against the opposition when Russian forces entered the fray on the side of Bashar Assad in October 2015, and cleared the way for regime forces to retrieve lost ground.
The turning point came when Assad’s forces, with Russian assistance, took the city of Aleppo from the opposition in December 2016. This prepared the ground for a new peace initiative in which Assad’s ouster could no longer be the first item on the opposition’s agenda. From January 2017, Russia took charge of the Astana peace process, bringing Iran and Turkey on board as partners.
Its principal achievement has been the setting up of four “de-escalation” zones in different parts of Syria in May-August 2017, where cease-fires are being enforced by the three “guarantor” nations.
In December, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran met in Astana and announced that on Jan. 29-30, the Syrian National Dialogue Congress would take place in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, bringing together 1,500-2,000 Syrians to discuss their country’s future.
Large sections of the opposition, militias in Syria and political entities abroad recognize that the Astana process is the only viable platform to discuss political ideas and options to heal the nation and commence reconstruction and development.
Numerous issues need to be addressed if Sochi is to play a constructive role. Firstly, the three sponsors need to be on the same page. Iran is seeking to consolidate its military and political presence in post-war Syria, much to the chagrin of neighbors Israel and Jordan and their mentor the US, leading to Russian concerns about a permanent American military presence in Syria.
Turkey remains hostile to a Kurdish presence in Sochi, though Russia recognizes the Kurds’ important role in uniting Syria. As of now, Russia is seeking to invite the Kurds while ensuring that the delegates do not represent Kurdish political and military entities.
Secondly, the congress needs to look at certain immediate problems: The return of displaced people, the provision of humanitarian support, the disarming of militias and their integration into national politics, the challenge from extremist elements that are not part of the peace process, rebuilding the national army and security forces on non-ethnic and non-sectarian bases, and above all, deciding the future of foreign forces in Syria. These are all matters of deep contention, and will not readily yield a consensus from the assembled delegates.

They include the return of displaced people, the provision of humanitarian support, the disarming of militias and their integration into national politics.

Talmiz Ahmad

Thirdly, the congress will be a minefield of contentions as diverse Syrian opposition groups, ranging from the accommodative to the rejectionist, get together to press their claims. At the end of December, some 40 groups said they will not attend the congress, accusing Russia of war crimes and of shielding the Assad regime’s human rights abuses, though this could be pre-conference posturing.
Fourthly, there is no consensus on constitutional matters. The Sochi Congress should decide whether to amend the existing 2012 constitution or work toward a new document. While this is being addressed, many opposition groups want Assad out of the picture at the start of the transition, while others would accept him through the transition up to elections.
The Syrian regime and congress sponsors Russia and Iran believe that Assad should have the right to stand for elections and test his popular appeal, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to him as a “terrorist” who is impossible to work with.
The other constitutional issue is federalism. This has serious implications for Syria, since there are fears of a de facto partition of the country into enclaves controlled by various groups and their mentors abroad.
Finally, the gravest national challenge is reconstruction, a daunting task given the widespread death and destruction in Syria. This will need to be a global effort, with resources provided generously from the coffers of several nations, particularly affluent ones. Absent this commitment, Syria will sink back into the quagmire of factionalism, warlordism and destructive foreign interference.
We will know in a few weeks whether the leaders of Syria are capable of the selfless statesmanship and national commitment required to heal their nation, qualities that have not been in evidence over the last seven years.
• Talmiz Ahmad, a former diplomat, holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.