Astana peace process for Syria moves into overdrive

ANKARA: Syrian peace efforts by Russia, Turkey and Iran moved into overdrive on Sunday with a foreign ministers’ meeting to be followed by a summit this week involving the three countries’ presidents.
Sergei Lavrov, Mevlut Cavosoglu and Javad Zarif met in the Turkish city of Antalya to discuss progress toward a political settlement and access to humanitarian aid. On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani will meet in the Black Sea resort of Sochi in Russia.
The three countries are sponsors and guarantors of the Astana peace process, a series of talks in Kazakhstan that have led to the establishment of cease-fire and de-escalation zones in four areas of Syria. The process runs in tandem with UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva.
Although Ankara initially differed with Tehran and Moscow over the Syrian conflict, over the years they have found common ground. Turkey has recently increased its criticism of US policy on Syria, blaming Washington for not keeping promises about a withdrawal by the Syrian-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from areas liberated from Daesh.
Ankara sees the YPG as the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU and the US.
“There is a growing assessment” that the US is using Daesh and the Syrian Kurds “as an excuse to remain in eastern Syria as a potential counterweighing force against the Russian-Iranian presence,” Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin wrote in the Daily Sabah newspaper.
He said Wednesday’s summit in Sochi was “an extension of the Astana process and complements rather than replaces the Geneva process.
“For both platforms to produce concrete and sustainable results, however, all stakeholders should contribute with a view toward protecting Syria’s territorial integrity and providing freedom and safety for all Syrians within the parameters of UN Security Council Resolution 2254.”
The resolution, unanimously adopted in December 2015, calls for an end to violence, a political settlement and elections within 18 months.
Gulriz Sen, an Iran expert at TOBB University in Ankara, said the fundamental divergence between Turkey and Iran over the fate of the Assad regime seems to have dissipated with the start of the Astana talks in January.
“The Astana talks strengthened diplomatic contacts and ties between Turkey and Iran on the Syrian issue,” Sen told Arab News.
“Turkey’s interests in Syria are more concentrated in the north of the country, with particular sensitivity over the fate of the main Syrian-Kurdish political party, the PYD (Democratic Union Party), and the Kurdish cantons.”
Sen said Syria’s borders with Iraq, Israel and Lebanon held strategic significance for Iran.
“Albeit on the same diplomatic table and in cooperation, Iran and Turkey are still competitors for further influence on the future of Syria,” she said. “But both states are aligned in keeping Russia as a counterweight to the US presence and strategies in Syria.”
The PYD/YPG issue is a red line for Turkey, which is against their participation in a conference sponsored by Russia to discuss reconciliation and a political settlement in Syria, planned for next month.
“Our sensitivity about the PYD/YPG is obvious. The participation of these terrorist groups would be unacceptable for Turkey,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said after Sunday’s meeting.
The increasing number of meetings between the three countries suggests that it is crucial for Russia to have the other two on board with its diplomatic initiatives, Timur Akhmetov, a researcher at the Russian International Affairs Council, a Kremlin think tank, told Arab News.
“Russia is aware that regional powers are allergic to interventions in Middle Eastern affairs from any outside powers,” he said. “Besides, Russia can’t ignore these players’ concerns due to their capacity to influence things on the ground in Syria and elsewhere in the region.
“All this necessitates closer coordination of efforts and synchronization of policy decisions between Russia and these two powers.”
None of the three countries think the Astana process enjoys sufficient international legitimacy, and the Syrian opposition is not ready to engage in definitive negotiations outside the Geneva process, Akhmetov said. “So the Astana and Sochi initiatives should, in the end, invigorate the Geneva meetings.”
The eighth round of Astana talks take place in the second half of December.

Astana peace process for Syria moves into overdrive