Trump files: Confronting Russia
The file of US President-elect Donald Trump confronting Russia is of extreme importance to the westerners and Arabs alike. It is important not only because Russia is an active ally of Iran and a key partner in the war in Syria, but also because international relations are dependent on what will happen later in various areas between the two superpowers.
Optimistic forecasts of a new era with more cooperation between Moscow and Washington could, much to our surprise, be the other way around and end Obama’s eight years of good relations with the Russians.
Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying that he would be able to improve relations. There are a number of outstanding issues, such as the escalating conflict in Ukraine, and the dispute over NATO’s influence and borders as well as threats to Europe’s interests. Some Republicans blamed the Obama administration for not preventing the expansion of Russian influence in the world.
I expect that Trump’s strong personality and his repeated accusations of the Obama administration’s weakness reflect his real vision, which will lead to tensions between the two superpowers unless Moscow changes its policy in Crimea and in Eastern Europe. Everyone is waiting for Trump’s announcement of his Cabinet, with his secretary of state expected to be a hawk, which will show definitively that Trump is NOT at all like Obama.
So then, what does concern us in the file of Moscow-Washington relations?
The end of the Cold War, in the early 1990s, had put an end to the map of alliances in the Middle East. The following years were dominated by contradictory US policies: An offensive one, such as the invasion of Iraq during the presidency of George W. Bush; and a regressive one, during the time of Obama. A number of Republicans criticized the current administration because it entirely ended the US military presence in Iraq, withdrawing most troops but leaving enough to prevent a vacuum that resulted in infiltration by other powers. This happened to the strategically important state due to Iranian dominance and the emergence of Daesh.
Another chapter in this file deals with Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the strategic US-Israeli relationship and Washington’s interests in the petroleum-rich Gulf region. After the secret Tehran-Washington negotiations were revealed, Israel became an active antagonist of both the negotiation and the agreement. Although Obama won the congressional approval for the agreement by defeating the pro-Israel lobby, the opposition to it is still strong and threatens to disrupt the agreement under the upcoming administration.
Iran has not given Obama anything important in return but it has rushed to reassure the Russians that the nuclear agreement will not prejudice their distinctive relationship. Tehran then confirmed the alliance through deals and joint military operations with Russia. This will probably reshape the map of Middle Eastern alliances between Russia and the West.
Trump’s win and Putin’s insistence on his positions may lead to a return of the spirit of the Cold War though not the war itself. Is this situation in favor of our region? On the one hand, there is a negative impact as tension and unrest will increase. On the other hand, this may foster US-Gulf joint defense agreements. Listening to Israel’s objections against Hezbollah will, at the same time, put an end to Iranian expansion in the region.
Undoubtedly, Trump’s arrival in the White House will have an important impact on the whole world, including our region. A number of issues, which were left pending during Obama’s presidency, will be bound by the interpretation of relations with the Kremlin, and the ability of the two presidents either to cooperate or to compete. We cannot expect too much during the first half of the first year of Trump’s presidency, especially in major conflict zones such as Syria and Iraq. His administration’s policies will be defined more clearly later. Will Iran, by then, be able to resolve all the battles in its favor? Or will the group of Arab states facing Iran today succeed in stopping Iran’s progress on the ground? Will Iran change its policy in response to new international developments?
• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran journalist and internationally acclaimed columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and ex-editor in chief of Asharq Al-Awsat.
* Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat
