Middle East peace process amid Obama’s pessimism

THE most recent statements by US President Barack Obama suggest that he is not optimistic about the possibility of peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians in the coming months. In an interview given to an American journalists Jeffery Goldberg, President Obama made it perfectly clear that time was running out for Israel to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians. He added that if Netanyahu thought that peace with the Palestinian Authority is a remote possibility then Netanyahu should think of an alternative plan.
All along US Secretary of State Kerry’s wheeling and dealing to have the Palestinians and the Israelis agree on a framework agreement, Obama has not shown presidential investment in the process. For Kerry to exercise pressure on both sides, Obama should have demonstrated more interest in the process. Long time observers to the Israeli politics observe that Obama’s perceived lack of interest in the process has weakened Kerry’s effort.
It seems that Obama does not want to associate himself with a possible failure. He seems to learn from his own experience. From the start of his first term, Obama approached the Arab-Israeli conflict in a bold manner. He exerted immense pressure on the Israeli government asking it to freeze settlements. He failed to compel the Israeli government to offer the necessary concessions to make peace possible. Later, Obama realized that he had exaggerated his ability to make a difference. That said, Obama has always said the right things.
The American administration has yet to play the role of an honest broker. A few months ago, Prof. Rashid Khalidi published a book about what he called “Brokers of Deceit.” Khalidi’s main argument is that successive American administrations have always taken the Israeli side. It remains to be seen whether Kerry will stray from that course. Thus far, all leakages about Kerry’s framework proposal indicate that he is only getting closer to the Israeli positions. Daniel Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel and currently teaching at Princeton University, says, “One criticism of Kerry’s diplomacy is that he may be bending over so far to address Israeli concerns that he may not be able to meet the Palestinians concerns.”
Undoubtedly, Kerry has spent time and effort in painstaking negotiations. Unfortunately, he has drawn close to the Israeli perspective. With the deadline nearing, it is not clear how Kerry could convince the Palestinian leader to accept his ideas when there is a near Arab consensus that the Jewishness of the Israeli state is a non-starter! Again, I agree with Khalidi that America cannot play a constructive role in solving the conflict.
Furthermore, it is not clear whether the Israeli government takes Kerry seriously. In the absence of presidential involvement in the process, various Israeli politicians are not expected to budge. Put differently, Obama should send an unequivocal message that peacemaking in the Middle East is an American priority. He needs to put the Palestinian-Israeli track on the front burner.
In a week or so, Obama will meet the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Will Obama succeed in convincing Abbas to sign on to Kerry’s framework? Can Abbas say no? What will be the price for Abbas? Given the risks involved, these questions are difficult to answer. Only time can help us understand the depth of the quandary that faces all parties involved.
In order not to lose the bigger picture, Obama has yet to back Kerry in the latter’s ambition to solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A likely failure will further undercut the US influence in the region. Not while ago, Obama told the New Yorker that he seeks to create what he called geopolitical equilibrium in the Middle East. Such balancing act, according to Obama, can bring stability in the otherwise tumultuous region. Perhaps, it is just about time that Obama needs to realize that short of solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, his balancing act will be in trouble. Chances are high that American’s influence will further diminish in the region.