Will the ‘framework’ deal pay off?
To be sure, the contents of the framework have been leaked. In his meeting with the American Jewish leaders, Martian Indyk, the American special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, said that the objective would be to conclude a peace treaty by the end of the year. Indyk referred to what is considered necessary concessions for a fair and lasting deal.
The framework deal is expected to include: A phased Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank with special security arrangements in the Jordan Valley; a capital for the demilitarized Palestinian state in East Jerusalem; the recognition of Israel as a Jewish state; compensations for Palestinians and Jewish refugees; keeping some 80 percent of settlers of under Israeli sovereignty.
Implicit in the framework deal is no return to Palestinian refugees. For many Palestinians, this specification will be hard to swallow. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas will find it extremely difficult to accept in advance writing off the right of return for millions of the Palestinians before the start of the talks. Thus far, the Palestinian response is negative. President Abbas made it perfectly clear that he would not accept a deal that deprives the Palestinians from the right of return. Additionally, he is opposed to the idea of not having full sovereignty over the Jordan Valley.
On the other hand, Netanyahu is having difficulties in accepting all terms of the framework deal. But there are two points that could make it less difficult for him to be onboard. First, the deal talks about the compensation for the Jewish refugees who fled the Arab countries in the wake of the establishment of the state of Israel and the continuation of the state of war with the Arab countries. The American inclusion of this term is designed to create a supportive constituency within Israel that could push the government to accept the deal. Second, the Palestinian side is to acknowledge Israel as a Jewish state.
This is not a small step for the Palestinians to take. Just a few weeks ago, Netanyahu told Israeli audience that the reason for the continuation of the conflict was that the Arab side has rejected to acknowledge Israel as a Jewish state. Therefore, this stipulation in the framework will make it difficult for Netanyahu to reject the deal.
That said, the element of the framework is hotly debated in Israel and some intra-governmental differences have surfaced. By the same token, the Palestinians have been debating the framework in order to figure out how to deal with this proposal. Now, it is obvious that the Palestinian leader is in a dilemma. If he accepts that framework, he will face enormous Palestinian opposition and he will go down to history as a “sell out.” Nevertheless, if he turns down the framework deal, he will be blamed for the failure of Kerry’s effort.
What makes matter worse for the Palestinian side is that even accepting the framework deal will not automatically lead to an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. It can only be a means for extracting enormous concessions from the Palestinians without real quid pro quo. Long time observers of the Arab-Israeli conflict argue that the framework can only keep the negotiations on for yet another year without real success.
It seems that the Palestinian side has been taken off guard. President Abbas should have sought national reconciliation long ago. Hamas is not expected to agree to this “humiliating” deal. If anything, the policy of excluding Hamas while seeking a deal with Israel has been exposed. Earlier on, Abbas and his Fatah movement thought that a deal with Israel could enhance their status at the expense of Hamas. According to this logic, Hamas would be seen as a futile and unrealistic movement whereas Fatah would be seen as an achiever! Abbas’ possible acceptance of this deal will hardly project him as an achiever.
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