ME peace: Kerry’s mission impossible

Long time observers of Middle East politics are skeptical with regard to American efforts to mediate between Israel and the Palestinians Authority. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it perfectly clear that he would oppose any reference to Jerusalem in the framework agreement being worked out by US Secretary of State John Kerry. This statement reveals a rift in the position of Kerry and Netanyahu over the core issue of the conflict.
To be sure, Israeli top leaders see no point of responding positively to Kerry’s relentless effort to jumpstart the peace talks unless the framework agreement is in line with Israeli demands. In the end, many Israeli leaders do not believe that the American administration is in any position to exercise pressure on their government. It seems that short of a presidential interference, Netanyahu is not expected to cooperate with Kerry and act in good faith.
And yet, President Obama learned the hard way that he could not put pressure on the Israeli government. Just two years into his first term, he acknowledged that he had overestimated his ability to impact Netanyahu. For this reason, Obama is not identifying himself with what Kerry has been doing for fear of failure. That does not mean that Obama would not throw his lot if there were a chance for success!
The irony is that it would be highly unlikely that Kerry can sell his framework agreement to the Arab side if Jerusalem is left out. For the Arab side, Jerusalem is the key issue and resolving it can lay the foundations for historical reconciliation between Israel and its adversaries. We all remember when the late Arafat turned down Israeli offer for peace during Camp David talks simply because the Israelis failed to offer enough on Jerusalem. On more than one occasion, Arafat made it perfectly clear that no one can concede East Jerusalem for the Israelis.
It remains to be seen how Israeli leaders can sell their position while the Arabs are united behind the issue of Jerusalem. Of course, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas can be flexible but not on Jerusalem. But Netanyahu’s position should not be taken at face value. He understands the centrality of Jerusalem for the Palestinian negotiators and he understands pretty well that if Jerusalem were not on the table, no Palestinian negotiator would show up. It seems that this is exactly what Netanyahu would like to see. Put differently, Netanyahu seeks to undermine the process because the domestic political price for peace is extremely high that Netanyahu may not be able to afford.
Additionally, while Israelis continue paying lip service to the two-state solution, they have been creating facts on the ground to present them as a fait accompli. As soon as Kerry left Israel last week, the Israeli government announced that 1,400 more new housing units would be built on Palestinian land. Netanyahu’s decision to go ahead with the new settlements plan helps him keep his ruling coalition intact. It is as if Netanyahu has to appease the pro-settlement components of his government at the expense of the Palestinians.
While the construction of new housing units and the persistence of settlement activities can destroy the peace process, the Israeli government does not pay any price for defying the international law by building settlements on the occupied territories. Contrary to what the Palestinian negotiators said, there is simply no price tag on Israel’s policy on settlements.
Just a few days ago, the Palestinian chief negotiator, Saeb Erakat, said that President Abbas should forget about peace talks with Israel and find another avenue. This is exactly what would relief Netanyahu. I am not making the argument that Abbas should give in to Israeli terms but I argue that Netanyahu does not feel that he has to start a genuine peace process.
If anything, the American administration should understand that any effort that fails to address the Palestinians’ minimum demands including Jerusalem would have no chance to succeed. Therefore, Kerry’s mission will be futile if he thinks that the Arabs may accept to leave Jerusalem out of the framework agreement or Israel continues its settlement activities.

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