US-Iran deal not likely to affect Syrian revolution

Leaders of the Syrian revolution are not correct in claiming that the Syrians would have to pay the price of the US-Iran Geneva deal.
In my opinion, Syria will be the last to face the consequences of this temporary agreement. In just six months nothing would transpire to shake up the revolutionaries. Nothing is likely to happen after six months thanks to the lack of earnestness on the Iranian side or because of the likely US Congressional pressure against the deal.
Even if a permanent accord is hammered out after six months, Syrians and their revolution will be the last to be affected. It is because the Syrian revolution is homegrown and not imported from abroad. The revolution is comparable with what is happening in Afghanistan where the destruction of the Taleban movement and establishment of a substitute government in Kabul is a totally imported idea, which is not likely to last beyond the exit of the US forces. In Syria, on the contrary, the situation is totally different. The Syrian war is the result of popular opposition to Assad’s regime. Even if the moral support these forces are getting is stopped, then the struggle will continue and there are remote chances of Assad regime’s survival. I have no doubt about the fall of Assad’s regime. This is not just wishful thinking or based on a possible withdrawal of Iranian support or due to the growing Gulf support to the revolutionaries.
The main reason is that the regime has lost its relevance. The military-supported political system has crumbled. It is thriving on Iranian support. It cannot hold out for long. Syrians no longer consider Assad senior or his son as their national leaders. Most of them have now realized that Assad is the leader of a tiny sect.
It is impossible to believe that a regime rejected by Sunnis, constituting more than 70 percent of the country’s population, could survive.
In the current scenario, it is unlikely that the Assad’s regime will survive. It now maintains authority only in a few pockets. When we say that the regime’s survival is impossible, it does not mean there is a suitable national alternative available. This is another debate.
Whether Iranians and the US agree or not Syria will be the last to be influenced by this deal. The eventual ousting of Assad’s regime will deal a major blow to Iran and would weaken it in its negotiations and Iran will have to grant more concessions. In the past Iran used to depend on its proxies to implement its agendas.
The most prominent among those proxies was the Assad regime to pressure on the West with intimidation and blackmailing. The second proxy was the Hezbollah. That is why we should not mix up the Syrian revolution and the US- Iranian negotiation in Geneva because there is no relation between the two events even though developments in Syria are significant for the region. A submissive Iran has been demanding negotiations because it has been groaning under sanctions and it is looking for ways to survive. Iran’s promises could be false or true, we don’t know. However, the US administration has rushed into believing in promises made by Rowhani.
Apparently, Iran has no other choice. It’s economy is in tatters and that is why it wanted to get rid of the sanctions so as to get some breathing space. Most likely it may revert to its old ways and go ahead with its nuclear ambitions later.

Email: [email protected]