Testing times for Washington ahead
Diplomacy is replacing brinkmanship on three vital regional conflicts that will test US relations with its Mideast allies in the coming few months.
US Secretary of State John Kerry has made it clear that he and his boss, President Barack Obama, have chosen diplomacy as the best path to deal with thorny issues that challenge the region. It is a major shift in approach that has irked some US allies and may result in a political backlash in Washington for the administration.
The first of these issues is the Iranian nuclear program, where diplomatic efforts have intensified in the past few days. Marathon negotiations in Geneva last weekend between Iran and the so-called P-5+1 have failed to bring about an agreement. But as negotiators plan to reconvene on Nov. 20 there are signs that a deal may yet be reached.
Talks with Iran have been going on for years, but the election in June of moderate Iranian politician Hassan Rowhani as president has raised hopes that Tehran may agree to alter its position on key issues, especially uranium enrichment and opening up the Arak heavy water reactor for international inspection. Details of the weekend talks are sketchy, but it appears that the French position, probably influenced by Israel, has prevented a last minute deal.
Iran has defended its right to carry out uranium enrichment, but it is believed that it may agree to suspend the process for six months in return for easing sanctions that have taken its toll on its teetering economy. There were encouraging statements from the US and Britain and on Monday French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that a deal with Iran is still possible. The US will have to convince its allies in the region that such a deal is a good one for all. Israel has vociferously attacked the talks and warned the West of accepting a bad deal with Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has vowed to derail any agreement with Iran. His position has been echoed by US lawmakers from both sides of the aisle. Resistance against a deal with Iran is building up in Washington. America’s Arab allies, especially the Gulf countries, have been less vocal in their opposition.
UAE’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has lauded the Geneva talks after meeting with his US counterpart in Abu Dhabi on Monday. He said the UAE supports diplomatic efforts but called on Iran to make its nuclear program transparent.
The second test to America’s ties with its allies is the Syrian crisis, which has claimed well over 120,000 lives since March 2011. The Gulf countries have been pushing for military intervention to depose President Bashar Assad. But US-Russian agreement has eclipsed the military option and both powers now insist that diplomacy is the only recourse to ending the crisis. On Monday, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) agreed to attend the proposed peace conference but only if certain preconditions are met. It asked for guarantees that relief agencies be allowed access to besieged areas, the release of political prisoners and the demand that any conference should result in a political transition that does not involve President Assad. That future of Assad remains a sticking point and may prove to be a deal breaker. The opposition remains splintered, as many rebel groups on the ground have rejected any negotiations with the regime.
If talks fail in Geneva America’s Mideast allies will put pressure on the US to revisit old positions including arming the insurgents. On the other hand, any agreement that entails leaving Assad in power and allowing him to run for reelection will be viewed as a stab in the back of the Syrian revolution and its supporters.
The third issue where decades of on and off diplomacy have failed to reach a settlement is the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. More than three months have passed without progress and Israel has defied both allies and foes by expanding settlement activities in East Jerusalem and the West Bank while rejecting talks on the right of return and the future of Jerusalem. Kerry has warned Israel that missing a deal with the Palestinians may ignite a third Intifada. Failure to reach a just deal with the Palestinians will be put pressure on US-Arab relations.
Diplomacy has replaced other options on Iran, Syria and Palestine. America’s regional allies may support US efforts for now but many remain skeptical of the end result. The common perception that US interests and objectives are one and the same with its allies may be a false one. The coming few months will put relations to the test.
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