Brotherhood pushed Egypt to the brink

The Hamas, the Hezbollah, the Islamic Jihad and the Syrian intelligence have tried to interfere in Egypt’s internal affairs and trigger internal chaos ever since the January 25, 2011 revolution. Each group, however, had its own agenda. The Syrian regime wanted to keep Egypt on its toes because of the Muslim Brotherhood’s position on the crisis in Damascus. Iran supported the Brotherhood to weaken the Arab Gulf countries and deepen the internal division with a view to prolonging the crisis. Tehran had always been wary of Turkey striking a deal with Egypt.
While Iran is aware that reinstating the Brotherhood may lay the groundwork for a political understanding among Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey — which may be against Tehran’s long-term interests — it still supports the Brotherhood because of the latter’s ability to inconvenience various governments in the region. In fact, Iran considers the Brotherhood as a price it has to pay to secure a bargaining chip that could be used successfully during negotiations with the United States. Nobody is in doubt that Iran is exploiting the turmoil in Egypt to replenish Shiite recruitments.
On the other hand, Russia is worried about the threat to its national security in the event of political Islam gaining an upper hand. Moscow realizes the difference between the political Islam of the Iranian variety and the Sunni brand. Russia considers the former to be a force that is anti-US while it is yet to come to terms with the Sunni political Islam, which is credited with the downfall of the Soviet Union. Russia supported Egyptian Army to weaken political Islam and to show Washington that Moscow had a presence in a strategically important location. Moscow opened a channel of communication with the Egyptian Army by promising help. A petrified John Kerry, the US secretary of state, had to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and convey Washington’s concern about any possible rapprochement between Egypt and Russia. Consequently, Moscow dropped its plan to provide Egypt $7-billion aid and sell around 50 planes. President Vladimir Putin had to put his Egypt visit on hold.
The US today is in a difficult position. Following Washington’s threat to cut military aid to Egypt following Muhammad Mursi’s ouster, Russia and China volunteered to help Cairo. Once, the army was certain that funds would flow it defied the US, which was forced to change its strategy.
The Brotherhood mistook the initial hesitance by the US — calling back its ambassadors — and the feverish Turkish efforts at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as attempts to lend the former some recognition. The Brotherhood believed that the army and the civil forces would back down because of the position taken by different countries. But the army remained unfazed and swung into action to quell the sit-ins. The sudden turn of events also convinced the US that the Brotherhood had some extremist streaks as testified later by the subsequent violence. The arbitrary judgments passed against people who disagreed with the Brotherhood’s worldview, including Christians, also showed the ruling party in poor light.
The present military dispensation in Egypt deserves support not for its policies but to restore security and stability in the county. Any external interference in Egypt’s affairs and attempts to divide the world on the issue, are highly condemnable. The Arab Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, believe that they had to back Egypt to prevent the country from descending into anarchy — which is an ominous possibility considering the undeclared European-American competition over Egypt.
Given America’s ambiguous stand on Egypt, Saudi Arabia’s political and financial support to the military leaders of Egypt has come at a critical time. In fact, the message Riyadh is sending goes beyond Egypt — support to chaos and terrorism would result in grave consequences. Just because the Brotherhood failed or its exclusivist policies stuttered, one cannot back off from supporting Egypt, which is bigger than a party. Following a path which allows one to practice democracy without marginalizing or excluding any societal and political force should be the road map before the country.
The Brotherhood, in fact, dreads the future. It has now realized that winning elections cannot be construed as a license to establish an extremist Islamic state. It also realizes that the civil trend on the Arab street is a force to reckon with and would resist attempts to take the society backward. The Brotherhood, by now, should have known that their failure has more to do with people’s rejection of its worldview rather than its political shortcomings. It should desist from projecting itself as a victim of the situation. It will do well if it does some introspection. It should also accept Egyptian opinion that it is seen as a backward organization having links with outside elements since 1928.
The future road map should reflect the values of the constitution. The constitution alone can deter people from deviating from the established law and this is what scares “Islamists.” They wanted a loose constitution that would allow them to cling on to power and establish a Taleban-like regime.

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