Success of US-Taleban talks hinges on Pakistan
The US efforts to find a safe and dignified exit from Afghanistan by promoting peace in the country have taken another turn with the establishment of a Taleban office in Qatar. The Taleban, long shunned by the global community for supporting Al-Qaeda, have been receptive to peace talks offer with the US.
Although the group has denounced the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai as a puppet of the West, the new office has been setup to “meet Afghans.” The office also provides the Taleban a global identity. Their authorized representatives would now be able to travel freely and meet political leaders and express their political ambitions.
Even though the Afghan government, its High Peace Council, the US and Taleban are the main parties in talks, neighboring Pakistan will play an instrumental role in the peace process. One of the main aims of the peace talks is to reach a cease-fire between the insurgents, NATO forces and Afghan National Army (ANA) in the war-ravaged country. In return, the Taleban are expected to discuss the exchange of prisoners and a possible future political role in Afghanistan. The US is almost certain to seek Pakistan’s assistance in using its influence to convince the Taleban leadership to strike a deal. Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, has widely been accused of giving birth to the Taleban in Afghanistan and later supporting it against the coalition forces. Diplomatic circles already acknowledge Pakistan’s role in facilitating the much anticipated peace talks between the warring sides and the formal opening of a Taleban office in Qatar.
In recent years, Pakistan has actively pushed for an end to war in Afghanistan and tried to take several steps to encourage peace process between Taleban and the global community. Although Pakistan officially denies the presence of Taleban leader Mullah Omer in the country, he is believed to be sheltered in the country. A peace deal in Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s own national interests. The country has been in an uneasy relationship with the Karzai government and clearly wants a greater say in Afghanistan's future. Pakistan’s government is of the view that its “legitimate interests” in Afghanistan must be recognized after the withdrawal of NATO troops. A friendly government will help secure one side of the border and also tame the influence of its archrival India in the region.
However, the process of restoring peace to the region and reach reconciliation is expected to be a long and complicated process. The Karzai administration has already expressed its displeasure about the official recognition to Taleban and suspended security talks with the US to protest the use of “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” by Taleban at their Qatar office. The Afghan government believes that direct peace negotiations between the US and Taleban compromise its position and may result in an unfavorable outcome for the future.
While the Taleban representatives in Qatar currently are heavily reliant on Pakistan, it may be interesting to see how they gain confidence and come on their own as the peace talks proceed further.
Safeguarding Pakistan’s interests, while also pushing for its demands in Afghanistan’s future, is likely to pose a challenge to them.
