Assad’s possible downfall worries Israel

One of the ironies of the Syrian crisis has to do with Israel's reaction to the possibility of President Bashar Assad's downfall. Historically the Baathist regime in Damascus has been the most hostile toward Israel. And while the last war between the two was fought in 1973, Israel and Syria had battled each other indirectly in proxy wars many times before. But Damascus had honored a four-decade truce in the occupied Golan Heights while leading a rejectionist front that supported armed resistance against Israeli occupation. Like his father, Hafez Assad, Bashar projected himself as
Israel's bitter enemy. Attempts to mediate a peace deal between the two in the past had failed.
But Israel stands to lose the most if President Assad and his regime collapse. Israeli leaders are worried about Assad's replacement, especially as the role of Jihadists becomes prominent in the two-year armed rebellion. The Syrian president had warned before of chaos breaking out in the region if he was to be removed. He claims to be fighting terrorists who want to destabilize his country.
Recently there has been concern that President Assad might transfer strategic missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. A month ago Syria accused Israel of attacking a military installation not far from the borders with Lebanon.
Israeli sources talked about hitting a military convoy that was heading toward Lebanon carrying SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles and their launchers.
Israel will ask President Barack Obama during his visit this week that the US carry out airstrikes on Syria in the event that Syrian missiles are transferred to Hezbollah, the Guardian reported on Sunday. The paper added that Israel will ask for US support for Israeli strikes on Syria to prevent
such weapons transfer if the US was not willing to do so itself. Israeli sources told the paper that such weapons would include anti-ship missiles that threaten US naval presence in the Mediterranean.
The US had made it clear to Damascus that it would not hesitate to interfere directly in Syria if chemical weapons were used or were about to fall in the wrong hands. It is believed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the presence of such weapons when he met with King Abdallah in Amman last month. Some reports spoke of a joint Jordanian-US task force getting ready to intervene in Syria if chemical weapons depots were compromised.
The growing influence of Jihadists in Syria is also worrying Washington. While the US insists that it will not arm Syrian rebels for fear that weapons could find their way to Jabhat Al Nusra, which Washington has classified as a terrorist organization with links to Al-Qaeda, recent statements by US Secretary of State John Kerry indicated that the West would send arms to the more moderate rebels namely the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Recently a shipment of arms from Croatia, financed by Saudi Arabia, was sent to rebel-held areas in Derra through Jordan. The flow of arms into Syria is also a source of concern to the Israelis. When the regime of Muammar Qaddafi fell in Libya rebels, including those belonging to Al-Qaeda in Maghbreb, were able to get their hands on a huge cache of weapons. Some of these arms were smuggled into Egypt, especially Sinai, Niger and Mali. A repeat of the Libyan incident could happen in Syria with dire consequences for its neighbors.
Israel would prefer to see President Assad remain in power. He is an enemy that Israel knows well. Chaos in Syria, along the lines of Iraq, would destabilize Lebanon and maybe Jordan, with upsetting effects on Israel and the region. In fact such Israeli concerns may have swayed the Americans into
adopting a new approach on Syria. The Syrian opposition was dismayed when Secretary Kerry talked about a political deal in Syria, based on the Geneva protocol, where the regime and the opposition would engage in dialogue. The statements underlined Washington's growing concern over the void that will be created in the event of Assad's departure.
Israel was never a fan of the Arab Spring. The wave of popular uprisings has claimed Israel's most trusted ally in the region, former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and was now threatening to topple an enemy in Syria with whom it enjoyed a long truce in the Golan. Israel is worried that the Syrian rebellion could spread into the strategic plateau. Haaretz reported this week that Syrian rebels seized a military intelligence compound in the town of Shagara, 8 kilometers from a cease-fire line with Israel in the Golan Heights. The incident came few days after Syrian rebels kidnapped then
released UN peacekeepers who were monitoring a decades-old truce along the Golan Heights between Israel and Syria.
On the other hand the defeat of President Assad would deal a hard blow to one of his closest allies and a die-hard enemy of Israel; Iran. Tehran supports Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, which Israel consider as a huge threat to its security. Assad's removal would deny these two groups a
regular supply of weapons.
In any event Israel, like the United States, is adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward Syria. An ideal scenario for Israel would be for a weakened Assad to remain in power now that his army has been significantly undermined.