Regardless of where Egyptians stand politically, all of them will be depressed to see tanks back on the streets of Cairo. The polarization between Muslim Brotherhood supporters of President Muhammad Mursi and diverse opposition forces is hugely dangerous, and, if people do not realize it yet, the army’s tanks are evidence of the risk the country is running, by being so divided.
The generals did not relinquish their half century of political dominance because they wanted to. They went because they had run out of options. However, any wise political commentator should surely be cautioning, that for many of the Egyptian military, their retreat from politics is seen as a tactical withdrawal. At the moment, at the behest of the Mursi administration, they can play the role of reluctant referee, in what the military establishment will be hoping, will be rising political conflict. If and when the troubles tip over into anarchy, maybe with a little covert help from military intelligence, then there will be widespread despair at the chaos and violence, and however reluctantly, the army may be welcomed back, since it alone will be capable of restoring order.
If that happens, Egypt’s old inefficient regime will have returned, with a new top commander assuming the country’s leadership, on what of course, he will promise will only be a temporary basis, in defense of the revolution.
Indeed there are grounds for suspecting that the military may be quietly encouraging opposition protest against the new constitution. A close analysis of the text of this new document and its predecessor, shows that there is very little of substantive difference between them. It is an honorable document that guarantees the rights of women and of Egypt’s sizable Christian minority and is not, as opponents declare, the template for a one-party Muslim Brotherhood state.
Unfortunately President Mursi, who played his cards brilliantly in levering the military out of the new political process, seriously lost his touch last month, when he arrogated to himself sweeping powers, which could neither be challenged by Parliament nor the judiciary. This move was simply too much like that of the old regime. Indeed, some have argued that Mursi gave himself even more power than Hosni Mubarak.
The president then compounded his political error by having agreement on the new constitution rushed through and insisting that the referendum on its provisions would go ahead on Dec. 15. His statement that the “doors of dialogue” on the constitution, “remain open” is deeply unconvincing, given the absurdly short timeline. Those opposition members who have genuine concerns over the document, will rightly believe that any adjustments after a vote in favor in just nine days time, is highly unlikely.
A delay in the vote and a more transparent and widely-considered examination of the constitution, could defuse the current crisis. Such a course is probably the only way that all the political elements that brought about the revolution, will continue to work together democratically, for the benefit of every Egyptian. Mursi has to reach out to his political opponents and give them reasons to persuade their supporters to come off the streets.
The alternative is continued violence and confrontation, stirred up by extremists on both sides, which will make the essential political dialogue even harder to restart. Mursi promised a middle way and a government for all his people. It is not entirely his fault that opposition demonstrators have been lured back onto the streets and into the re-occupation of the now iconic Tahrir Square. However, only he now has the ability to defuse the tensions and get people to return to their homes.
For sure he and his party, the Muslim Brotherhood and its political allies won a convincing electoral mandate. But that mandate carried with it, as he seemed at first to recognize, a responsibility to bring all Egyptians with him into the new political dispensation. His enemies, not least in the military, were ready from the start, to exploit any mistake or weakness, and mount just the sort of demonstrations that we are now seeing. Meanwhile his supporters, very reasonably, see their electoral victory being challenged on the streets, and after initial reluctance, are now prepared in their turn, to confront opposition demonstrations.
So far, Egypt’s new president is not delivering the sort of political leadership that is required so urgently. The danger is that unless he gets a grip, and acts decisively to defuse the rising tensions, even if the new constitution is approved on Dec. 15, he will find himself the leader of a state in long-term turmoil, with the military quietly awaiting the right moment to intervene and restore the old order.
Editorial: Challenges for President Mursi
