OPEC sees energy demand rising 60 percent by 2040

VIENNA: Global energy demand will increase by 60 percent by 2040 compared to 2010 levels, OPEC said, with greenhouse-gas-emitting fossil fuels remaining by far humanity’s main source of power.
World oil output is projected to soar from 81.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 99.6 mbpd over the same period, the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its new annual report.
The share of oil in global energy use is however projected to fall from 31.9 percent to 24.3 percent, while that of all fossil fuels — oil, coal and gas — will dip from 81.6 percent to 78.4 percent.
Hydro, biomass and other renewables will account for 15.8 percent, up from 12.7 in 2010 and nuclear power will represent 5.7 percent, little changed from 5.6 percent, the 12-member OPEC said.
Renewables like solar and wind “are expected to continue to grow at a fast pace, partly as a result of government support. However, given their low initial base, their share of the global energy mix is expected to remain modest by 2040,” OPEC said.
“It is fossil fuels that will continue to play the leading role in satisfying world energy needs in the future.”
Regarding the price of oil, which has fallen almost 30 percent since June to around $80 per barrel, OPEC said that it expects a nominal price of around $110 per barrel for the rest of this decade.
By 2025, the nominal price will have hit $123.90, rising steadily to $177.40 by 2040. In real or inflation-adjusted terms the price will fall to $95.40 by 2020 and hit $101.60 by 2040, OPEC predicts.
OPEC, which pumps a third of the world’s crude, also predicted 2.2 billion cars on the planet by 2040, up from 938 million in 2011, with the number in developing countries soaring fivefold.
The predictions are based on global economic output rising 160 percent by 2040 compared to 2013 by purchasing power parity.
“Under all scenarios, the health of the global economy remains central. Although there have been both ups and downs this year, the global economy is generally seen continuing its gradual recovery,” OPEC said.