Ending the Syrian crisis

UN Security Council resolution 2254 on Syria, which was adopted unanimously on Friday, offers the most comprehensive and detailed road map to date to end the five-year Syrian conflict.
It enshrines the principles and points of agreement that had emerged from previous meetings in Geneva and Vienna over the past few years. Since the eruption of the Syrian crisis in March 2011 the Security Council had adopted 13 resolutions on Syria, but all have failed to bring an end to the civil war there. So what is different this time?
The latest resolution had come out after weeks of intensive diplomatic activity that had brought the United States and Russia closer than ever before toward forming a common vision on how to end the Syrian crisis. Differences remain but the two countries seem confident that they can keep the current momentum going. Testing the resolve of the two countries to implement the resolution will take place in the coming few days when the UN envoy, Stephan di Mistura, will take steps to prepare for face-to-face negotiations between the Damascus regime and the Syrian opposition; slated to begin in January.
But a binding cease-fire will have to take place concurrently. With so many groups fighting on the ground the challenge of imposing a halt in hostilities will be big. But while Washington and Moscow appear happy with the latest resolution, the two adversaries are not. Damascus is yet to comment on the new plan while the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) has criticized the resolution for failing, among other things, to determine the fate of Syrian despot Bashar Assad. The regime does not recognize the Syrian opposition in exile and considers all rebel groups as terrorists. On the other hand, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, remain adamant that Assad should have no role in the transitional phase.
It will be up to the US and Russia to convince their allies to accept the new plan. That will be a tall order. The fate of Assad is only part of the challenge. Deciding who, in the opposition, is a terrorist or not has become a major issue. Jordan, which was handed the task of coordinating efforts to compose such a list, was criticized publicly and privately when it submitted a proposed list to the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) meeting in New York on Friday.
Iran has blasted Amman for including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the terrorist list. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the list of terrorist organizations in Syria compiled by Jordan as “contradictory.”
The opposition groups, which had met in Riyadh last week, have formed a coordinating committee and named its negotiating team. But Iran and Russia expressed reservations over which groups are to be involved.
As various players review their positions in preparation for the next phase in the Syrian conflict it was not surprising that confrontations on the ground picked up pace in the past few days. The regime, backed by the Russian air force, is trying to make strategic gains before an expected cease-fire. Activists blamed the Russians for carrying out one of the bloodiest air raids in Idlib on Sunday, where more than 50 people, including civilians, were killed. By the same token government forces launched a number of attacks in the Aleppo region in an attempt to regain control of strategic villages.
Such confrontations will continue as each side tries to wrest control of territory in order to improve its negotiating stand if talks take place next month.
The fresh drive for ending the Syrian conflict is related to the war against Daesh in both Syria and Iraq. Washington and Moscow hope that launching a political process in Syria will unify moderate groups and may create a situation where government army and rebel fighters could join forces to fight the militants. Defeating Daesh has now become the number one priority for the US and Russia; putting the future of Assad on hold for the moment.
This may not please various regional players. Riyadh announced last week the formation of a 34-country Islamic coalition to fight terrorism, including Daesh.
The latest UN resolution presents a rare chance to launch a political process that could end the Syrian conflict, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions. That process should begin with a cease-fire agreement and the start of lengthy and frustrating talks between the regime and the opposition, culminating, within 18 months, with the formation of a transitional government that will write a new constitution and hold elections. Whether Assad will be part of this transitional phase or not remains an open question.