Putin’s Syria gamble

It is the end of diplomatic engagement over Syria — at least for now. Speculations that Moscow’s stance for a political solution in Syria may have been swayed following a flurry of diplomatic activity where the Russian capital played host to a number of key players and partners this summer have now been dashed.
The Russian government has confirmed reports that it has sent a fresh supply of modern weapons to the beleaguered Damascus regime and that it will continue to do so. In addition western sources are sure that Russia, President Bashar Assad’s closest ally along with Iran, has dispatched additional military advisers and hundreds of elite forces to an air force base near Latakia on the Syrian coast.
Moscow, it appears, is building a new runway in that base which will provide for a permanent Russian military presence. Next week, the Russian navy will hold extensive military exercises along the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. The message is clear: Russia is widening its strategic military foothold in Syria. Any talk about regime change and a transitional phase is now on hold. These moves dispel earlier hopes that President Vladimir Putin was considering a new peace plan that would lead to a Geneva III meeting over Syria anytime soon.
It’s a setback for countries that had hoped Russia would play a positive role in ending the intractable Syrian impasse.
Syria is now a multilayered open ground for proxy wars. Almost all of the parties that have stake in the outcome of the Syrian crisis back one party to the conflict both politically and militarily. For Russia, the region has become a breeding ground for extremists and at least two countries, Iraq and Syria, are facing almost imminent partition. Putin believes that the Syrian regime and its army are the most reliable partner in the war against militants. He had suggested that a new regional and international coalition, which includes the Damascus regime, be in the forefront of this war.
But there is more to the Russian involvement. The US remains entangled in Iraq and Moscow believes that the US will continue to have military presence there for some time to come. As the Syrian regime loses more ground to rebel groups, mainly to Daesh and Al-Nusrah Front, the regime will redeploy its forces to protect the capital and the highways linking it to Homs, Aleppo and the coastal region. The latter is considered the last bastion and the backbone of the regime.
Moscow will not allow this vital region, which holds the port of Tartus; home to a small Russian naval base, to fall in the hands of the rebels. Some analysts believe that Moscow’s recent actions constitute a pre-emptive move to strengthen its political and military stakes in a future Syrian mini-state that extends from Damascus to Latakia. In the absence of a political solution in Syria, Moscow is preparing itself for an ultimate conclusion to the conflict — a divided country with extremists fighting over territory in the east, north and south.
The US has criticized the Russian move. President Barack Obama has said that Moscow’s strategy in Syria will not prevail and his Secretary of State John Kerry has warned that Russian military buildup in Syria “could further escalate the conflict” and even risks confrontation with US-led coalition forces. But in Russia’s view aerial strikes against Daesh have failed to achieve their objectives more than a year since they began. Some military experts agree. Without ground forces the militant group will continue to occupy large areas of both Syria and Iraq.
The so-called moderate opposition forces are in control of only small areas of Syria; the rest is in the hands of extremists. With Turkey hoping to establish a safe or buffer zone in northern Syria, and the country’s Kurds fighting to declare their self-rule region, Syria is already being torn apart.
It is unlikely that the Russian military build-up in Syria’s coastal region will alter the positions of key players in the Syrian crisis; from Washington to Riyadh and from Tehran to Ankara. There appears to be an acceptance of the inevitable fragmentation of Syria into various areas of influence and control by different groups. This is bad news for the Syrian people, especially those who are contemplating making the perilous journey into Europe as migrants and refugees.
But it is also bad news for the region which is about to see major geopolitical upsets in both Iraq and Syria the outcome of which will bring additional displacement of people in addition to ethnic and sectarian cleansing in some parts. For now no one is pinning hope on Staffan de Mistura’s plan to end the conflict. He has already warned against further militarization of the war in that country.