Turning the tide against Assad

Since the beginning of the popular uprising in Syria in 2011, Assad and his regional allies have left no stone unturned to ensure the survival of the regime. While stalemate has continued throughout the four-year-old confrontation, the past days have brought news of unremitting victories of the rebels. The crucial Nassib border crossing with Jordan — an important trade route — fell in the hands of rebels. Additionally, rebels have made significant gains in Idlib in the north thus posing serious threat to the regime’s chances of survival. Many observers thus have asked whether this new trend is a game changer.
Until recently, Assad’s propaganda machine has insisted that victory was within reach. But the latest developments in the region triggered by the assertiveness of Saudi Arabia in dealing with various kinds of regional challenges have apparently created a different momentum that would most likely affect both Assad and his allies in Tehran.
Fearing the consequences of the losses that Assad forces have endured in the past week, Assad dispatched his Defense Minister Fahd Jassim Al-Freij to Iran. Contrary to what the mouthpieces of Assad regime said, the visit was to beg Iran for more assistance in the face of the unfolding terrifying events. For the first time in two years, the survival of the Assad regime is hanging in the balance and it seems that the Alawite-dominated regime is facing a moment of truth.
Given the bullying tactics of Iran in various part of the Middle East and the fact that the United States has turned a blind eye on Iran’s subversive tactics in several Arab countries, many reached the immature realization that the Arabs would only stand idly by while Iran actively helps its proxies to win the struggle in Syria. The same impatient pundits and of course some policymakers began to believe that nothing could be done to reverse the tide of events in Syria and that Assad would emerge as a clear winner in the months to come. To rally international support for the Syrian embattled regime, Tehran and its proxies have sought to frame the struggle in Syria as if it is one against “terrorists.” This tactic has not worked well for Assad.
Things have changed. Saudi Arabia is more assertive than ever. The new policy adopted by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman is behind much of the change in Syria. When the Iranian-backed Houthis staged a coup and sought to subjugate Yemenis, the Saudis stood up for them. The Saudi-led campaign proved that the Houthis could be defeated. Building on the success in Yemen, Riyadh and Ankara worked to cast aside their differences and worked together in Syria. Obviously, the rebels’ success in the last week is a reflection of the Saudi-Turkish coordination. If this trend continues unchecked, Assad’s survival would be compromised.
If anything, the recent defeats of Assad’s regime means that Iran’s proxies are losing ground, and losing big time. The governmental forces and Hezbollah are losing areas that they had captured in the past and hailed as the beginning of winning the war altogether. Of all the recent losses, the loss of Jisr Al-Soughour town is a strategic one. Now rebels are in a position to control the roads to the Alawite strongholds.
Some may argue that this is not yet a game changer and that the end of the conflict is still not on the horizon. That said, we should not forget two emerging key dimensions. First, it appears that key Sunni capitals are joining forces and taking the initiative to check Iran’s growing influence. Second, there is an explicit crack in the inner circle of the regime and a growing opposition to the dominating role of Iran. Not a while ago, Assad had to fire key members of his inner circle chief among them is Rustum Ghazalah who died in mysterious circumstances.
There are many stories about Alawites sending their sons abroad to avoid Assad’s attempt to recruit more fighters. In brief, one could say that more than ever before, regional supporters of the Syrian revolution are hell bent on changing the ground rules of the revolution and on preventing the emergence of an Iranian-dominated Shiite Crescent. If anything, this is a game changer.