Houthi coup: Regional, global impact

In Yemen, it appears that another Syria is in the making. The Houthis, a minority faction, has hijacked the political process and imposed its will on the majority of Yemenis by the use of force. As a result, terrorist groups are making common cause with some tribes opposed to Houthi incursions.
Besides destabilizing Yemen, their actions are threatening regional security and international trade routes. Last September, Houthis attacked the capital Sanaa, taking over government institutions, and military and security units, in some cases changing their leadership and plundering their hardware and official documents.
In January, they attacked the presidential palace and detained President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. They also attacked Prime Minister Khaled Bahhah and then kept him in detention, as they did with several key ministers and officials. Other officials and journalists were kidnapped, detained or physically intimidated. Some prominent political leaders were assassinated.
During the past week, the Houthis took additional steps to bolster their coup and give it a false appearance of legality. They read a so-called “constitutional declaration” on Yemen’s state television, which they had already commandeered, replacing President Hadi with a new presidential council and dissolving the Parliament. Under the guise of yet another “dialogue,” they are now pressuring other political factions to accept the new status quo.
The international community swiftly condemned Houthi actions with a UN Security Council statement censuring them, as did its Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. During his visit to Saudi Arabia on Feb. 8, where he met with Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and other Saudi officials, as well as the GCC secretary-general, Ban said, “This situation in Yemen has been the major topic which we addressed,” adding that it must be dealt with through UN Security Council and GCC initiatives.
He expressed alarm that “the situation is very, very seriously deteriorating, with the Houthis taking power and making a government vacuum.” He insisted: “There must be restoration of legitimacy of President Hadi” and pointedly said, “I’m concerned that the Houthis and former President Saleh have been undermining the transition process.”
The Gulf Cooperation Council, whose initiative was instrumental in coordinating Yemeni efforts since 2011 to manage a peaceful political transition, was quick to condemn the new developments. In a statement issued on Feb. 7, it described Houthi actions as an unlawful coup against the legitimate government, expressing its “absolute rejection” of the coup, which has “completely upended the peaceful political process in which all Yemeni political players, including the Houthis themselves, had taken part.”
The immediate goal of the Houthi coup is to derail Yemen’s peaceful transition. In 2014, the National Dialogue Conference was concluded after 10 months of intense political debates. It adopted a detailed road map to complete the political transition through drafting a new constitution and preparing for presidential and parliamentary elections. However, almost as soon as the National Dialogue was successfully concluded, Houthis began their drive to impose their will by force. Then, as a draft constitution was completed, Houthis arrested key officials involved in that process to force them to change the draft. When that failed, they engineered their coup d’état.
Houthi coup spells disaster for Yemen’s future and has serious regional and global dangerous implications. In Yemen itself, fragmentation along tribal and sectarian lines is likely if the Houthi takeover is allowed to pass. Houthis are but one component of the Zaidi community, which has a tolerant and pluralistic culture. Houthis represent only one faction, which believes in restoring the “imamate” system and emphasizes religious differences with other sects. Other Zaidi groups and politicians do not share those views, but are forced to acquiesce for fear of retribution. While there are no precise figures for Yemen’s sectarian composition, it is generally believed that Zaidis represent about 30 percent of the population and Houthis are no more than 10 percent.
The rest of Yemen does not share Houthi views or religious orientation. Attempts by Houthis to conquer them by force will only lead to more bloodshed and possible fragmentation. As we saw in Syria and Iraq, tribes opposed to Houthi domination may accept help from terrorist groups to repel Houthi incursions. In Yemen, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has attempted to make common cause with the tribes against the Houthis. As a result, fighting terrorism in Yemen will become even more difficult. Spillovers from Yemen’s instability will be quickly felt regionally and globally. There have been credible reports that Houthis have been trying to take over islands in the Red Sea near Bab Al-Mandab Strait, thus threatening international trade and creating a haven for pirates, smugglers and human traffickers.
International and regional swift action is needed to help Yemenis restore their legitimate government and continue the process of peaceful transition. The UN Security Council needs to take decisive action against the Houthi coup as a serious breach of international peace and security. The GCC foreign ministers have been meeting regularly to coordinate their policy. The next meeting is scheduled for Feb. 14 in Riyadh.