JEDDAH, 15 September 2004 - Will the Manmohan Singh government survive? That is the first question that anybody coming back from India is asked these days. There is a genuine reason why they ask this question again and again. Indians living and working abroad have access to only three or four television channels for their daily diet of news from home. These are the same television channels that predicted a safe return to power by the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.

It is a universal fact that the world of television thrives on soundbites. And India's main opposition party is peopled by politicians known for delivering excellent soundbites. Can anybody in the Congress Party take on, for example, Uma Bharati, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Pramod Mahajan and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi in a television debate? Can anybody wax eloquent on Veer Savarkar as they do? Can anybody engage them in a worthwhile discussion on the latest census figures? Can anybody resist clapping at their one-liners? No. They play to the gallery and television offers them the best medium to hawk their half-baked and spurious and very often dangerous political ideas.

It is because of these inane debates carried out in plush TV studios in New Delhi and Bombay, far from the reality that is India, that Indians abroad think that the government of the day is doing everything wrong. That the opposition is scoring brilliant points. That Dr. Manmohan Singh is a non-functioning prime minister. That the Savarkar issue will vote the Congress-led government out of power in Maharashtra.

What is not being said on the television news channels and what is not clear to a vast majority of Indians living abroad is this: That this is the most stable government in India in 10 years. That it does not depend on 20 or 30 odd parties for its survival. That the prime minister is not hemmed in by powerful claimants for power in his own party. That all the three parties in the ruling coalition share a remarkable distaste for divisive and communal politics. That the BJP has still not come to terms with the stunning verdict handed down by the people of India in the last general elections. And that it is forced to make issues out of non-issues so as to keep itself in the headlines and in the drawing-room television debates.

Lalu Prasad Yadav may sound like a joker to urban non-voting Indians. But nobody can question his commitment to secularism. Nobody can match his political wisdom. It is not a joke to rule Bihar without interruption for nearly 20 long years - despite his worst enemies being in power in Delhi. He is not Mayawati and he is not Mulayam. He is an integral part of this government. He will not bring this government down.

The leftists have a history of running coalition governments. Never once have they brought down any government. They are familiar with the tightrope walking that ruling coalition partners have to do to keep the flock together. Yes, there are murmurs of dissent. Yes, they are unhappy with a number of the government's decisions. All the same they are just acting as a pressure group to keep the government focused on the agreed common minimum program.

When the government was being formed and when the Communist Party of India (Marxist) decided not to share power, political analysts took that as a harbinger of bad news. It was not. The leftists have their own methods of madness. By not joining the government, they have in fact dealt a big blow to the communal parties. They have very shrewdly occupied the opposition space as well. In a parliamentary democracy, opposition space is as important as ruling space. Former Prime Minister V.P. Singh would repeatedly underline this point. He always favored a secular opposition to a secular ruling party. The leftists will not bring this government down.

If Lalu and leftists are firmly by the side of the government, who will bring this government down? Congress was out of power for 10 long years. All those who had to leave the party have already left. Those who are in the party now are hardcore Congressmen. There will be dissidents in the party as is always the case in all ruling parties but nobody will split the party. This government is here to stay.

If, and that is a big if, Congress loses Maharashtra assembly elections, the government will become even stronger and not weaker as is being said on those very television channels. Reason: An electoral defeat will bring Sharad Pawar and Congress closer than ever before, not the other way round. All this sounds too simplistic. But Indian politics was never complex until the 24x7 news channels arrived on the scene with their "feel-good" and "feel great" programs.