KABUL, 20 October 2004 — Afghanistan’s interim leader Hamid Karzai stayed far ahead yesterday with almost a third of the votes counted from Afghanistan’s historic presidential election but Taleban-led guerrillas mounted more attacks in the south. The US-backed interim president had 61.8 percent of the 31.4 percent of ballots counted by late afternoon, according to the electoral commission website. “This is exactly what we expected,” said Hamid Elmi, Karzai’s campaign spokesman.

His nearest rival out of 17 other candidates, former Education Minister Yunus Qanuni, had only 17.8 percent. Warlords Abdul Rashid Dostum and Mohammed Mohaqeq had 8.1 percent and 5.5 percent respectively. With a clear lead in 22 out of the 34 provinces, Karzai looks set to win with over 50 percent of the vote and avoid a run-off election which analysts said would dilute his authority in forming the next government.

Karzai, an ethnic Pushtun, has won over 90 percent of the votes in the southern city of Kandahar and eastern Nangahar province, but has also won a majority in western Herat and the capital Kabul — the most populous provinces in the country.

Karzai will likely win a clean sweep of the votes among the country’s Pushtun majority in the south and east, while his rivals have much smaller constituencies in northern Afghanistan and almost no appeal to Pushtun voters. Pushtuns account for some 40 percent of the population, followed by Tajiks at around 25 percent. Shiite Hazaras make up roughly 12 percent and Uzbeks around 10 percent.

Qanuni, an ethnic Tajik and former stalwart of late resistance hero Ahmad Shah Masood, has a lead in six northern and northeastern province. Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek, is leading in four provinces and Hazara military strongman Mohaqeq in two.

Millions turned out to vote on Oct. 9 and Taleban-led militants mounted few major attacks on the day. But the insurgency rumbles on in the troubled south and southeast. Militants fired half a dozen rockets over US-led military outposts in the southeast early yesterday in the latest in a string of post-election attacks.

Despite the general belief that the pattern is unlikely to change as more votes are counted, another spokesman for Karzai said that victory was not being taken for granted. “It is too early to be talking of forming a government as we are still at the stage of counting the ballot,” Jawed Ludin told a news conference, when asked whether some cabinet posts were already decided.

Hamayon Shah Asifi, one of the 17 also-rans, said Karzai’s victory was a foregone conclusion, ascribing it to realpolitik and US President George Bush’s need for a foreign policy success ahead of his own re-election bid on Nov. 2. “Mr. Karzai is the winner because of the American elections. The Americans have been helping us so much, and they have the right to choose a president for us,” Asifi said scathingly.

“I will congratulate him when he is announced officially as the winner, despite the fraud,” he added, referring to charges of vote fraud being investigated by an independent panel. The leading four places in the poll strongly reflect tribal and ethnic loyalties in the rugged, mountainous country.

In the worst incident this week five people traveling in an electoral commission jeep were killed when it hit an explosive device in southeastern Paktika province. Among those killed was the main doctor for the small village of Yahyakhel. One person has been detained for the attack, the US military said.

In all, 19 people have been killed in attacks since election day including two US soldiers and three children. The fundamentalist Taleban were ousted by a US-led military operation in late 2001 after they failed to surrender Al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden.

The US military, which leads a coalition of over 18,000 troops in the country, said in a statement yesterday it that would continue to hunt down insurgents who are waging a guerrilla bombing campaign in the south and east of the country.

“Although the Oct. 9 election was a strategic defeat for Al-Qaeda and the Taleban, we know that they will continue to look for ways to show they exist,” the statement said, quoting a senior US commander Maj. Gen. John Cooper. “Coalition forces have not pulled back into their garrisons, and they remain fully engaged throughout the country,” the general said.