LONDON, 20 October 2004 — It could be five years before Iraqi security forces can guarantee security and allow US-led coalition forces to wind down their role, a leading think tank said yesterday.

The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said that bringing peace to Iraq will depend on the Iraqi interim government taking control of the country’s security and winning public confidence.

“It is essential that Iraqi security forces become the primary instrument of law and order,” the institute said in its annual publication, “The Military Balance.”

At a news conference launching the report, the institute’s director, John Chipman, also addressed the issue of terrorism, saying that while the United States remains a top target for Al-Qaeda, Europe may be at a higher risk of attack because of weaker security and its proximity to the Middle East.

The report highlighted efforts to build up Iraqi government forces, but said the task was still in a very early stage. It will take some time before Iraqi forces are ready to take the lead in controlling Iraq and defeating insurgents, it added.

The report said that US-trained government forces currently number 36,000. “It may take five years for them to obtain the aptitude necessary to guarantee stability,” the report said.

Asked when US and other coalition troops would be able to leave, editor of the publication, Christopher Langton, said everything depended on training Iraqi government forces and the speed with which they could take over security.

“That will determine how long the US forces will have to be there,” Langton said.

Langton noted that the British government, the second largest contributor of coalition forces, has said its troops could stay until at least the end of 2006. He said there were not enough coalition troops in Iraq to ensure security, adding to the need to build up Iraqi government forces.

Success in Iraq is not assured, Chipman told reporters.

“The outcome of the US-led international effort to bring stability to the country is far from certain as the most powerful military power in the world struggles with a multifaceted insurgency,” he said.

The study said US commanders are trying to create stability and clear the way for January elections by using air and artillery attacks to hit insurgents, while the Iraqi authorities offer talks and aid to insurgents who abandon their struggle.

Iraqi officials need to build up the civil administration to help restore peace, it added.

“The elections, if handled in an efficient and transparent manner and accompanied by the imposition of order, could play a crucial part in this process,” it said.

The report also said that up to 1,000 foreign fighters had infiltrated Iraq and were working alongside Sunni Muslims loyal to Saddam Hussein to target US troops.

“The substantially exposed US military deployment in Iraq presents Al-Qaeda with perhaps its most attractive ‘iconic’ target outside US territory,” the report said.

The institute estimated that there are 18,000 potential terrorists plus many more sympathizers around the globe. Both that estimate and the figure for foreign fighters inside Iraq are unchanged from last year’s report.

Al-Qaeda is present in more than 60 countries around the world and radicalism is increasing in Western Europe, where Muslims often feel marginalized, the think tank in London said. The IISS also said that Westerners and Western interests in the Arab world appeared to face greater peril now than before the US-led war in Iraq.

IISS said that although half of Al-Qaeda’s 30 senior leaders and perhaps 2,000 rank-and-file members had been killed or captured, a “rump” leadership was still intact with 18,000 terrorists potentially still at large.

“Furthermore, the sources of European Muslims’ grievances... are increasingly social, economic and political marginalization in host countries,” it said.

According to IISS, terrorism, illicit trafficking and organized crime facilitated by globalization, trade liberalization, and weak borders were the important threats considered in 2004 defense planning.

“New approaches to the way states respond are being sought by governments as they grapple with these increasingly overlapping dangers...

“The challenge for states, therefore, is how to integrate their armed forces, border control forces, and police forces into an architecture capable of reacting to and managing 21st century threats in an effective and seamless fashion.”

Peacekeeping was also highlighted by IISS as an area of continued expansion in 2004, especially by EU nations who contributed 55,960 troops — including military observers — to UN and other international missions. This figure compared with 46,312 in 2002.